FXUS64 KLZK 041728 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1128 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.AVIATION...
MID CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES NORTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
CLOUD COVER CONTINUED ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. MORNING TEMPERATURE READINGS RANGED FROM 
THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. 

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH STORM 
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD 
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW 
FLURRIES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM 
PASSES. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH COLD AIR ONCE 
AGAIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE 
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT 
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. 

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...AS 
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...WARMING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. 
SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING 
MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN FILTER INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL 
RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INCLUDED A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY MONDAY...AS A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED 
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS 
AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT BEST CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT 
SHORT WAVE PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND 
ECMWF BOTH ON THE SAME PAGE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON THE 
EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH GFS 
CONSIDERABLY DEEPER AND FURTHER TO THE WEST. BEST COURSE OF ACTION 
RIGHT NOW WILL BE TO BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS 
THE ECMWF VERSUS THE LIKELY OVERDONE GFS.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH DEEP...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE 
WESTERN UNITED STATES. SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH 
SURFACE REFLECTION LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY 
BEFORE ROTATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS 
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR 
ARRIVING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

APPEARS THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 
MODEL SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT INDICATING THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION 
WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTH WHERE 
SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM 
AND WILL READJUST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY 
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND 
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. OVERALL MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE 
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58