FXUS64 KLZK 300537
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1137 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.AVIATION...
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT
MOST PRECIP TO EXIT THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE BY 12Z. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR WITHIN 2 OR 3 HOURS AFTER PRECIP MOVES PAST A
GIVEN TAF SITE...THEN BECOME VFR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER.
HOWEVER...MAY HAVE A PROBLEM WITH PATCHY BR CREATING IFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS UNTIL MIDMORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE FEATURE ROUGHLY ALONG AN EL
DORADO TO WEST MEMPHIS LINE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH PRECIPITATION MORE SHOWERY
IN NATURE BEHIND IT. WILL HOLD ON TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE STATE AND AIR MASS
STABILIZES.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING AS
BOUNDARY ACCELERATES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ON ITS HEELS.
TRAILING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD ALREADY OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND WILL REWORK THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND A QUICK PEEK AT THE NEW MODELS. WILL ALSO TWEAK THE SKY...TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT GRIDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
QUICK UPDATE NEED TO REWORK POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALL PRODUCTS OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD MOVED INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY LOWERED IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF
AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY
CLOUDY...HOWEVER...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA ALLOWED TEMPS TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN
SOME SPOTS. ACROSS SRN AR...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO STREAM NEWD
FROM NE TX AND NRN LA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF
AR AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS GENERAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK ON
TRACK. BEST POPS WILL OCCUR NEAR SUNSET AND INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS
AS LLJ STRENGTHENS SOME AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SWD WITH
THE PUSH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SE IN ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY MON...WITH
CLOUDS BREAKING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER NE MEXICO
AND SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER
THE SRN CONUS WED INTO THU. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS LATE TUE ACROSS
THE SRN CWA...THEN AREA WIDE WED AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. TEMPS
WILL THEN DROP OFF RAPIDLY WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION
TO THE EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN...SO HAVE KEPT
PRECIP AS ALL RAIN AT THIS TIME. ANY VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR AND LAGGING PRECIP COULD CHANGE THE SITUATION...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE WED NIGHT IF PRECIP LINGERS
LONGER. THE COLDER TEMPS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DURATION
THAT THE EXPECTED ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 41 53 34 55 / 80 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 48 56 37 54 / 90 10 10 30
HARRISON AR 36 50 33 56 / 70 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 55 35 54 / 90 10 0 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 54 35 54 / 90 10 0 20
MONTICELLO AR 48 55 37 54 / 90 20 10 30
MOUNT IDA AR 42 55 33 54 / 80 0 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 38 52 32 57 / 80 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 42 52 34 56 / 90 10 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 46 54 37 54 / 90 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 40 55 33 55 / 80 0 0 20
SEARCY AR 42 54 33 54 / 90 10 0 20
STUTTGART AR 45 53 36 54 / 90 10 0 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...28
