FXUS61 KBGM 271630
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1130 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AS A STORM SYSTEM HEADS UP THE EAST COAST. BY
AFTERNOON...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH EXPECTED
AT TIMES. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...UPDATED AS OF 1120 AM...
BANDS OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION...TIED TO DEEPENING NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL STORM...ARE NOW RELEGATED TO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM IN THE
GULF OF MAINE.
ELSEWHERE...A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY FROM COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SHOULD PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ACROSS THE WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VALLEYS AND OUR POCONO ZONES...A FEW
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED.
FROM HERE ON IN THIS AFTERNOON...ANY RISES IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SMALL...WITH READINGS FAIRLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCRSG ACRS THE CWA. MAV/MET VALUES HV POINTED TO POTENTIAL FOR WIND
ADVISORY OVR THE PAST DAY...AND LATEST NUMBERS HV NOT DEVIATED MUCH
FM THIS. MOMENTUM TRANSFERS FM MOST RECENT BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL OVRNGT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH LL WINDS ARND 2KFT
INCRSG TO 40KTS SHORTLY AFT 00Z. THUS WILL HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT AND PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ALTHO
FINGER LKS WILL STAND LESS CHC OF SEEING ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS...EXACT DIVIDING LINE OF WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IS
TRICKY AS A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS WUD
BLANKET THE ENTIRE FA WITH STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY DEPENDENT ON HOW
MUCH LOW WINDS UP ALONG COAST AND WHERE IT DOES SO. BUT WITH
POTENTIAL MOST CERTAINLY THERE FOR GUSTS TO OVR 45MPH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ISSUE FOR ENTIRE REGION. MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME WILL BE FM 00Z THIS EVNG THRU 18Z SATURDAY UNTIL
LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...LK EFFECT WILL TRY TO DVLP OVRNGT. LACK
OF SIGNIFICANTLY CLD AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MUCH PCPN
DVLPMNT OVRNGT...BUT H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -3C WUD GIVE DELTA T ARND
13C FOR THE OVRNGT. THIS WILL BE ENUF FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AND
WILL GO WITH LKLY-CAT POPS FM FINGER LKS INTO MOHAWK VLY AND
SUSQUEHANNA REGION THRU 06Z. MOST AREAS WILL START OFF AS RAIN WITH
A GRADUAL MIX WITH SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT EXCEPT ACRS THE LK PLAIN WHERE
TEMPS RMN ELEVATED. BY 06Z ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST INVERSION LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY AFT 06Z SO
HV DCRS POPS A TAD AS DELTA T ARND 11C TO 12C. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS
LKLY TO BE RELEGATED TO TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN FM
CORTLAND TO OTSEGO CNTYS TONIGHT. EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
BY SAT MRNG.
LK EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DCRS IN
COVERAGE OVR TIME. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALMOST EVERYWHERE
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY
MID-MRNG AND EVERYWHERE SAT AFTN.
WK RIDGING BUILDS IN SAT NGT...ENUF TO KILL OFF ANY LINGER LK EFFECT
AFT MIDNIGHT. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THE NEXT LOPRES SYSTEM/SFC BNDRY SPREADING POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOME LGT PCPN IN SUN AFTN. AS IS TYPICAL...GFS IS QUICKEST TO SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO CWA IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
FOR SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHCS EXPECTED SUN NGT.
WITH SW FLOW KICKING IN ACRS FA AND H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE ABV 0C
AND H9 TEMPS TO +3C OR SO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE U40S AND
POSSIBLY NR 50F ON SUNDAY.
OVERRUNNING PCPN EXPECTED TO MV IN SUN NGT. P-TYPE WILL BE TRICKY
DRG THIS TIME PD AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT AND SFC TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ALL RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN SOMEWHAT OF AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SHOW THIS TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL BEGIN S RAIN AND LOOKS TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE BUILDS IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO BRING A BRIEF PAUSE TO THE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT PICKS UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN RISE BACK
TO VFR FROM SW TO NE IN A DRY SLOT. KBGM AND KITH ARE IFR NOW
WITH -SN AND SHOULD RISE TO MVFR BY 16Z. KSYR AND KRME SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR DUE MOSTLY TO CIGS AS THE SYNOPTIC MIXED PRECIP
CHANGES TO LAKE EFFECT. KITH COULD REMAIN MVFR INTO AFTN WITH A
NW FLOW OFF OF CAYUGA LAKE. THIS EVENING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND CAA WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHC OF LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO NY TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BACK TO MVFR AND MAYBE
IFR FOR ALL BUT KAVP.
NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS MORNING INCREASING MIDDAY AND AFTN TO 10
TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TONIGHT WITH CAA AND ALIGNED FLOW
WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 15G25.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT TO SAT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT NGT TO SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
SUN AFTN TO TUE...MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATE TO THE STATS PUT OUT ON TUESDAY.
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD BE TIED TODAY AND BROKEN TOMORROW FOR SYRACUSE.
THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY
CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS
ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE
AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 1946 276 DAYS FEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
2) 2009 275 DAYSFEB 25TH TO NOV 26TH SO FAR
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978265 DAYSMAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941263 DAYSMAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...TAC
CLIMATE...
