FXUS63 KGRB 090906
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...CLASSIC PANHANDLE HOOK-TYPE BLIZZARD CYCLONE NOW IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LOW AT 982 MB AND STILL DEEPENING RAPIDLY. IT/S
AMAZING WATCHING SURFACE PRESSURES AT A HANDFUL OF STATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE IA AND W-C IL CONTINUE TO FALL EVEN THOUGH THE LOW
IS PULLING AWAY.

NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NOW ONGOING IN GREEN
BAY. BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW SHIFTG NWD...BUT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
FEEDING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD KEEP IT IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GOING SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE
BALL PARK...WL PROBABLY MAKE ONE LAST SET OF TWEAKS BASED ON
REPORTS RECEIVED UP TO ISSUANCE. MOST PROBLEMATIC AREA IS
LAKESHORE...WHERE WARMING FROM LAKE CONTINUED TO RESULT IN A MIX
WITH RAIN AT TIMES...AND GREATELY REDUCED SNOW TOTALS. BUT WINDS
WL BE BACKING MORE NLY...AND WITH PLENTY OF HEAVY PRECIP STILL TO
GO CAN/T GIVE UP ON THAT AREA YET. SUSPECT I/LL END UP NUDGING
TOTALS DOWN RIGHT AT THE LAKESHORE. BUT THE WESTERN PART OF
MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES WL PROBABLY HAVE TOTALS SIMILAR TO
GRB.

STRONGEST WINDS JUST STARTING OVER E-C WI. RUC SHOWED 925 WINDS
NOW AT 45 KTS...AND STILL FROM ABOUT 060 DEG. STRONGEST WINDS IN
GRB SHOULD BE WHEN WINDS COME AROUND THROUGH 040 DEG AND SURGE
DOWN STILL UNFROZEN BAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH
A FEW 50 MPH GUSTS NEAR THE SHORE OF THE BAY OR NEAR THE LAKE IN
NRN DOOR COUNTY.

MAIN CHG TO THE REST OF THE FCST WAS TO WIND DOWN SNOW A LITTLE
QUICKER THIS AFTN. ALSO THINK WE WERE AND MAYBE STILL ARE A LITTLE
TOO SLOW TO BREAK CLOUDS UP AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. NOT SURE REALLY
COLD AIR WL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA TNGT...SO HELD MINS UP SOME. BUT
MAY NOT GET MUCH IF ANY RECOVERY TOMORROW...AS WLY FLOW BY THAT
TIME SHOULD ALLOW COLD AIR FM THE PLAINS AND SRN CANADA TO SURGE
ACRS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM DISCUSION WILL FOLLOW A LITTLE LATER THIS
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE AREA IS IN IFR OR LIFR CATEGORY...WITH A
FEW LCNS VLIFR. THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ013-020>022-
030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018-019.

&&

$$
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