FXUS64 KMEG 090519
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1119 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AND TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 797

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 797 AND FLASHFLOOD WATCH IS PROJECTED TO BE CANCELLED
FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS STORMS CLEAR CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT. CHANGED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR SOME OF THE WATCHES. THE RAIN
HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT
IS JUST BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SOME STRONG WINDS WITH IT. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO BE
ABOUT 20-25 MPH AND GUST TO BE NEAR 40 MPH/YET BELOW/ SO WILL NOT
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. 

PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY JUST ABOUT MIDNIGHT.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL PROVIDE A RISK OF FLOODING
ACROSS THE CWA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NRN MS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT ENDING
THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TSTMS.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE WINDY
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAY STILL NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR A SMALL AREA LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW IN THE GULF MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SWC

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

COLD FRONT NOW TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES...AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT GUSTING
TO 25-30MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY 12-15Z
AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 32-38MPH. CEILINGS POSE THE TRICKIEST
FORECAST...WITH CONFIDENCE THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPORARY AT ALL LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL BECOME VFR BETWEEN
13-15Z..AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN REGION. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF...WITH CLEAR SKIES BY 22Z.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  37  46  23  43 /  80  10  10  10 
MKL  40  45  22  41 /  80  10  10  10 
JBR  32  40  21  40 /  60  10  10  10 
TUP  49  53  26  44 /  90  10  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$