FXUS66 KSGX 290447
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
845 PM PST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN 
SNOW TODAY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BAJA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WRAP 
AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY. WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY 
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AT TIMES. DRY AND MILD 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO... 
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

QUITE A STORM TODAY WITH RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...WIND AND COLD. A FEW 
AREAS MISSED OUT ON BENEFICIAL RAINS (ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL)...BUT 
MOST AREAS GOT OVER A QUARTER INCH AND SOME FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN 
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH. ALSO...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FELL 
IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET. 

A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED LIKE A ROCK TODAY...10 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN 
YESTERDAY. THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SAN 
DIEGO COUNTY THIS EVENING AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. 

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN BAJA TONIGHT. THE 
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE 
LOW...AND UPSLOPING IS ALREADY OCCURRING ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE 
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES IN THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WILL ALSO ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...THE UPSLOPE 
FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY 
MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. 

NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND A BUILDING GREAT 
BASIN HIGH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD 
SLACKEN OFF DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THEN STRENGTHEN MONDAY MORNING 
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THE WIND FORECAST AT 
AT 5000 FEET SHOWS 25-35 KT OVER THE SBD MTNS LATE TONIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND 
THE THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE NON-EXISTENT. THIS SHOULD BE A LOW END 
WIND ADVISORY EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE 
AND THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS.  

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...SEASONAL WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH PREVAILING  
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES...MOSTLY INSIDE 
SLIDERS WITH WHICH NONE OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS DISPLAY MUCH 
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
290430Z...THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...BUT 
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS 
TONIGHT AND N-NE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS AND 
ADJACENT HIGH DESERT AREAS. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR...BUT 
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BE 
OBSCURED. 

INCREASING N-NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 25 KT COULD 
PRODUCE STRONG UP AND DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS LLWS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS 
AND OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
A 10 TO 12 FT WNW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. IT 
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE RAPIDLY ON SUN. WINDS OF 
15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECREASED TO 10-15 KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL HAS PUSHED 
COMBINED SEAS TO BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FT AT TIMES. A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS 
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SURF OF 5 TO 8 FEET WITH MAX SETS TO 10 FT OR 
MORE. THE SURF WILL LIKELY DECREASE RAPIDLY ON SUN. THERE WERE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY HAVE SINCE 
MOVED SOUTH. MORE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS UNTIL
     4 AM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS FROM 3 AM UNTIL
     2 PM SUNDAY

     WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     FROM 3 AM SUNDAY UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE AND SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO MIDNIGHT FOR THE
     INNER WATERS AND UNTIL 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...PG