FXUS63 KPAH 232359
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS. NO CHANGE TO PUBLIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST UNIFORM RAINFALL UPSTREAM OF FA...POISED
TO COME IN LATER TONIGHT. RELATIVE LULL/BREAK PERIOD FOR NOW WILL
LAST THRU MUCH OF PM...THEN THE FAUCETS TURN ON TONIGHT AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST WITH EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY/BROADER SYSTEM. 
CONVECTIVE REACH WILL EXTEND ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS MS RIVER...MAINLY
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR SMALLISH THUNDER CHANCES. THUS SEMO HAS
BETTER QPF POTENTIAL AS WELL.

INCREASING PGF PUSHES FORECAST MOS WINDS INTO SUPPORTIVE RANGE FOR
WIND ADVISORY BY TOMORROW SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED CHRISTMAS EVE
WIND ADVISORY SINCE THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR PAST
COUPLE DAYS. ENDED ADVISORY 12Z FRI B/C TIGHTEST GRADIENT IS
LIFTING NORTH BY THEN...HOWEVER FRI WILL STILL SEE STRONG IF JUST
SHY OF ADVISORY WINDS AT LEAST FOR FIRST PART OF DAY. MAY CONSIDER
EXTENSION PENDING COLLAB LOOK...BUT FOR NOW AM SATISFIED WITH PEAK
WIND PERIOD COVERED UNDER ADVISORY 12ZTHU-12ZFRI. 

NEW HPC QPF SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TODAY HAS
HELPED IN THAT REGARD. STILL FORECASTING 1-3" WITH 2-3" SWATH IN
WRN SEMO. FFG SUGGESTS WE CAN HANDLE THAT AMOUNT IN EXPECTED TIME
PERIOD BUT MINOR/SMALLER SCALE FLOODING MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT ITS POSSIBILITY IN HWO AS PRIMARY THREAT WITH WIND.

PRE SYSTEM WARMUP (RELATIVE) WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST SYSTEM
DEPARTURE COOL DOWN...BUT NOT TIL LOW LIFTS OUT AND PUSHES EAST OF
MS RIVER VALLEY...ALLOWING COLDER AIRMASS ON ITS BACKSIDE TO WORK
DOWN. THIS WILL OCCUR SLOWLY WITH MASSIVE FILLING OF UPPER LOW
OVER FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD SO WE'LL WORK THE COOLER
TEMPS IN ACCORDINGLY/GRADUALLY AND SLOWLY BUT SURELY THRU
WEEKEND/INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STILL A SPORADIC DAY 7-8 SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL PCPN W/QUESTIONABLE
FREEZING TEMPS BUT ALSO SPLIT OCCURS SO COLLAB CONSENSUS IS LAY
OFF FOR NOW...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE UPON HOWEVER GIVEN
CONTINUATION OF NIGHTTIME LOWS IN 20S INTO/THRU MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A GENERAL 
RULE ACROSS THE AREA. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY 
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS LOWER CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE 
IN. APPEARS TO BE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VIS WITH 
BR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM KPAH WESTWARD. INCREASING SOUTHEAST 
WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY KPAH/KCGI. APPEARS 
HIGHEST GUSTS OF 30-35KTS OCNL HIGHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING VIS WITH A 
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS SHIFT 
TO SW AND GRADUALLY LOWER THU NT BEHIND THE FRONT. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR 
     BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW 
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR 
     ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION 
     IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GIBSON-
     PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

$$