FXUS65 KFGZ 010331
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY SUNNY 
SKIES...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MORE WINTER 
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ARE SKETCHY THIS FAR 
OUT...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 
TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS 
EVENING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE LARGE SCALE 
PATTERN HAS SHIFTED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A DRY AND 
COLD LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN FORECAST TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES 
KEEPING THE WEAK RIDGE FURTHER WEST THAN WAS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. 
BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS SHOW A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK 
WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST 
OCCASIONAL HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...NO 
PRECIPITATION...AND LIGHT TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS 
THROUGH FRIDAY. 

EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE UPSTREAM LONG WAVE PATTERN 
IS POSSIBLE STARING THIS WEEKEND AND WITH A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN 
OUR CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ARE IMPROVING AS WE MOVE INTO 
NEXT WEEK. STARTING ON SATURDAY...BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST 
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST 
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD NORTHWARD WITH A CUT OFF HIGH MOVING UP INTO 
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A SPLIT TO DEVELOP IN THE POLAR 
FRONT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH COULD SHIFT THE STORM 
TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND ALLOW PACIFIC STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE 
SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODEL 
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AND FORECASTER 
CONFIDENCE ON BOTH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS LOW. 
THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER 
BEFORE WE CAN PROVIDE ANY DETAILS ON POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH LINGERING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WHITE 
MOUNTAINS REGION OVERNIGHT. KGCN METAR OBS ARE UNAVAILABLE...SVC 
TECH ON SITE. KGCN TAF IS AMD NOT SKED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&
$$

PUBLIC..................BOHLIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.