FXUS63 KFGF 270954 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
354 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON TODAY...AND DRIFT INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW...AND I AM GENERALLY
TENDING TOWARD NAM SOLUTION AS IT BETTER CORRESPONDS TO CURRENT 2
HR SLP DROPS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND
RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE MORE SOLAR TODAY
AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S. WITH THE H850 THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTN...PARTS OF SE ND COULD EVEN TAP INTO THE
LOWER 50S.

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE MODELED MOISTURE PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IS THE DRIER SOLUTION AS
THE GFS SATURATES THE COLUMN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS MODELED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROP TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON SAT AFTN...WHILE THE NAM IS IN THE 10 TO
15 UNITS BALLPARK. GENERALLY THINK THE GFS IS OVERDOING PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AND BOTH MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE.
WILL BE SOME WEAK PVA AS THE SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH...BUT IF THE
NAM MOISTURE PROFILE IS RIGHT WE SHOULD SEE NO MORE THAN FLURRIES.
AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO KEEP POPS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS LOW ATTM AS SFC TEMPS DRG THE
DAY SAT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. MAY SEE A TENTH OR TWO ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH SAT EVENING AS TEMPS FALL BACK BLO FREEZING.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY WITH WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN 
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING OF NEXT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH...WITH GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH SFC FEATURES. NO
CHANGES MADE TO LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY...WHILE 
ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LATER SFC TROF PASSAGE. LEANING 
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 40S 
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
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