FXUS63 KTOP 102311
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
511 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
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.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.
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.AVIATION...
DRY AIR WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
WOLTERS
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.PREV DISCUSSION.../344 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW SITUATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD AS AN INVERSION SETS UP AND
WINDS DIE OFF. ANY REMAINING LIGHT WINDS WILL ADVECT PARALLEL TO THE
SNOWPACK SO SET UP THE TEMP GRADIENT RIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
BEST SNOWPACK. SHOULD FALL JUST SHY OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH
WINDS. APPEARS THAT SOME MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO ADVECT IN AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES IN ZONAL FLOW. MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
BARJENBRUCH
SATURDAY TO THURSDAY...SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH LLVL FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH WITH A SFC LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS. NAM/GFS/SREF SHOW A SHWV
MOVING INTO EASTERN KS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND WITH A SOUTH
WIND OFF OF WHATEVER SNOW PACK IS LEFT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIG SATURATED LAYER AND AS THE
SHWV MOVES THROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS AS
WELL AS FOG. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG BUT THIS FAR OUT IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE FOG SO WILL JUST LEAVE
IT AT PATCHY.
SEMI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER WITH SEVERAL SHWVS PASSING
THROUGH. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE A DRY FORECAST CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT TROF MOVES THROUGH ON TUES WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING
FOR HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEENS FOR LOWS. TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REBOUND TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST.
SALLY
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.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
