FXUS63 KGLD 250505
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...
828 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

BECAUSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST UNITED STATES DURING THE DAY...HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NEW SNOWFALL COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF IT HAPPENS AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF IT TO CAUSE A
DECREASE IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OR BLIZZARD WARNING. DON'T FEEL
STRONGLY ENOUGH AT THIS POINT ABOUT SNOWFALL OR THE WINDS BEING ENOUGH
TO MOVE THE CRUSTED OVER AND DECOMPOSED SNOW THAT IS CURRENT ON
THE GROUND TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A WIND ADVISORY. THIS
WILL...HOWEVER...HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MAKE
SURE THIS REMAINS THE CASE. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOCKHART
&&

.DISCUSSION...
221 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP TO 33KTS IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A CLEAR SKY WAS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT IN THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN UPPER LOW NEAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT 
AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW 
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW FROM 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE 
REGION TONIGHT AND THEN RETREAT TO THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE 
RETROGRESSES WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION ON 
SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND WIND. GFS/NAM 
MODEL WINDS INDICATE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY. 
HOWEVER THE GFS/NAM SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY FRIDAY. AT BEST AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE LOW END. 
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. DYNAMICS 
FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH 
OR LESS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. RECENT SNOWFALL 
APPEARS TO BE CRUSTED AND LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD BLOWING SO WILL 
INSERT PATCHY BLOWING SNOW INTO THE GRIDS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRATION 
TIL 00Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING TREND SO THAT 
EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY SHOULD BE OK.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN 
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED AGAIN 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT NIL POPS.  

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A RIDGE ON 
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS ON 
TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO POPS 
WILL STAY NIL FOR NOW. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH DRY CONDITIONS 
AND NIL POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES 
BELOW ZERO SO DO NOT EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES WITH A SNOW FIELD STILL 
AROUND TO WARM PAST THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL 
RESIDE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. 

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1005 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...NO SHORT TERM PROBLEMS AS SKIES WILL BE 
CLEAR AND WINDS HAVE SLACKED OFF WITH DECOUPLING. BIGGER CONCERNS 
ARE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS 
EXPECTED TO COMBINE FOR POSSIBLE AVIATION HAZARDS. SOME SURFACE 
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 2 AM MST /3 AM 
     CST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027-028.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 2 AM MST /3 AM 
     CST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR 
     NEZ079>081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR 
     COZ090>092.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

$$