FXUS63 KTOP 150541 AAB
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO THIN
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AT SPEEDS UNDER 8 KTS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND
WILL EXTEND TO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WAS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE TOP CWA. SUBSIDENCE
TONIGHT WILL HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 12 BELOW FOR
AREAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER BUT ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME SO WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY...CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH IS OVER KANSAS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT A WARM UP IS ON THE HORIZON FOR MID WEEK.
SALLY
WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. SSW-ERLY FLOW PICKS UP BY
MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AS AXIS OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL SAVE FOR
CIRRUS NORTH...AND 925MB TEMPS WARM TO +2C TO +4C. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR
NORTHERN SNOW PACK TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT SOUTH OF
I-70 SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING THURS TRANSITIONS TO
AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE...AND ATTENDANT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY MORNING. 14/00Z ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE TROUGH...AND DROPS SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE NW FLOW THROUGH
COLORADO. THE 14/12Z GFS KEEPS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...ECMWF DROPS CANADIAN AIRMASS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -4C BY 00Z SAT.
GFS IN COMPARISON KEEPS 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C THROUGH FRIDAY. TREND
OF LATE HAS BEEN TOWARD COOLER TEMPS AND A DEEPER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TROUGH AS SE CANADA LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCE FRIDAY...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL
EVIDENT...AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ATTM...WITH FURTHER REFINEMENT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
RETROGRADING NORTHEAST UPPER LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW...SO STUCK CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT
THOUGH...WITH ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE SCOURED OUT BY LATE WEEK
SYSTEM.
KONOP
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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