FXUS63 KSGF 262050
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE OZARKS ON CHRISTMAS EVE IS STILL HAVING IMPACTS ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING A CONCERN. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD SHOT LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE BROKEN RECORD WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT TO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHERE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WENT FAIRLY
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
CLOUDS AND WIND PLAYING BIG ROLES.
THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND EJECT EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES SOUTH OUT OF
WESTERN ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
BREAK. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE VERY CHILLY OVER THE WEST AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES IN OVER THE SNOW PACK. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL
FORMS OF GUIDANCE FOR EXPECTED LOWS.
SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW TO SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH ISEN
ASCENT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PCPN. EVENT A WAYS OUT TO BE PLACING MUCH CONFIDENCE ON PCPN TYPE
THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND SOUNDINGS DEPICT DIMINISHING
HUMIDITY IN COLUMN ABOVE -10...SO MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING.
ARCTIC FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO
THE MODEST WARMUP. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS BY
THE WEEKEND.
RUNNELS
&&
.AVIATION...
A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL
IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
THEREFORE BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AROUND...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO CARRY MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KSGF INTO SUNDAY MORNING. KBBG AND KJLN ARE
A LITTLE TOUGHER TO CALL. THINK KBBG WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR...BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR. WILL KEEP THE MVFR
GOING FOR NOW AS TIMING THE DIFFERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS BEST
HANDLED IN THE SHORT TERM. DO THINK KJLN WILL SEE ENOUGH IN THE
WAY OF BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO GO WITH VFR LATER THIS EVENING.
DO HOWEVER THINK THERE WILL BE MVFR AT TIMES...BUT THIS IS AGAIN
MORE OF A NEAR TERM ISSUE. WINDS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
