FXUS64 KTSA 081134
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR EARLY AT KTUL AND KRVS. RAIN
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY BEFORE DRY SLOTTING CUTS IT OFF TO DRIZZLE.
A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO MAY FALL FROM THE WRAPAROUND CLOUDS
LATER THIS EVENING AT KFYV AND KXNA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED MONDAY SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR HEADLINE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...ADDING OKMULGEE AND
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES AND DROPPING OTTAWA COUNTY FROM THE ADVISORY.
WILL KEEP THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 11 AM FOR NOW BUT IT MAY BE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PARTS OF OSAGE COUNTY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH REGARDS TO THE
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. POPS WILL BE HIGH TODAY BUT
QPF WILL BE LIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL CUT OFF THE
PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE TO
SNOW BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A POSSIBLE BRIEF
CHANGEOVER IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE BITTER COLD AND VERY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 20S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT THIS AIRMASS
WILL PLUNGE BACK SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA BEHIND THE SUNDAY SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE UNDERCUT GFS MOS TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT WILL NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF JUST YET.
WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE
SHALLOW COLD WEDGE BEING DIFFICULT TO DISPLACE DESPITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE IN
THE LATER PERIODS BUT DID SHADE DAYTIME HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOL
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 39 20 26 12 / 90 20 10 0
FSM 45 27 35 16 / 100 20 10 0
MLC 43 22 32 15 / 80 10 10 0
BVO 36 18 24 8 / 90 30 10 0
FYV 45 21 28 11 / 100 30 10 0
BYV 43 21 28 10 / 100 40 10 0
MKO 43 23 30 13 / 90 20 10 0
MIO 40 19 25 10 / 100 50 10 0
F10 40 21 28 13 / 90 20 10 0
HHW 45 26 36 17 / 80 10 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17
