FXUS61 KILN 261102
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING INDIANA OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL JUST END UP BEING FLURRY
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE STRONG LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING WORKING TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET SOME SUN. BUT SUSPECT CLOUDS
WILL FILL BACK IN LATER IN THE DAY. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. UPPER LOW WILL START TO SWING TOWARDS THE REGION LATER IN
THE NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL HOLDING AT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. TRAILING SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. THIS
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MOS
BLEND FOR LOWS AND FAVORED COOLER NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. APPEARS
THAT IT WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS TO BE
SNOW. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH ENERGY PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HEADING TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COULD DELAY THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT
HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS ENSEMBLES...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOWERING THEM ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER INDIANA HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NE AND WILL GENERALLY MISS THE
TAF SITES. A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL NOT CAUSE VISBY RESTRICTIONS.
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING OVER KENTUCKY. SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WILL SCATTER OUT SOME THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DISTURBANCE BEGINS
TO IMPACT THE AREA. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND SOME
TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT AT THIS TIME FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO REDUCE
VISBYS IN THIS TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE REDUCTIONS TO
VISBYS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY HOWEVER GUSTS WILL CUT OFF
BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
