FXUS63 KMKX 091014
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
414 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009
FORECAST FOCUS ON MAJOR WINTER STORM TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POWERFUL UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACCOMPANIED THE UPPER LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT HEADLINES WILL BE MADE.
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE
DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS. THIS SUPPORTED BY MID
LEVEL UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED BY THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
EXPECT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BANDS PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN FROM
OZAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN MIXING WITH THE
SNOW UNTIL AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING...WITH A WARM LAYER OF AIR
COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
EXPECT THE SNOW TO BECOME MODERATE TO LIGHT DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE STRONGEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION MOVES NORTHEAST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH ONLY ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE MOST NEAR THE
LAKE FROM OZAUKEE COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD GIVE STORM TOTALS
OF 12 TO 16 INCHES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH JUST 3 TO 6
INCHES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN FROM OZAUKEE COUNTY SOUTHWARD.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS KICK IN. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO PERHAPS 50 MPH...GIVEN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
PRESENT IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS. NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WITH VISIBILITIES STAYING UP AROUND 1 MILE.
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
END...WITH WINDS REMAINING BRISK. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES BY LATER
TODAY...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
1000/500MB THICKNESSES OF AROUND 505 DKM BY 12Z THURSDAY WILL
COMBINE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER TO SEND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW TO
20 BELOW ZERO ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
.THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH A SLOW MODERATION BY SATURDAY WITH RISING 1000/500MB
THICKNESSES. WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ZERO RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
BRISK.
RAISED POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL..BUT NOT
AS COLD AS THE END OF THIS WEEK. DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
BEYOND THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NE IL WILL MOVE
NEWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI AND INTO LOWER MI BY NOON TODAY AND TO
LAKE HURON BY EVENING. RAIN ALONG THE LAKE MI LAKESHORE WILL
CHANGE TO LGT TO MDT SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHILE THE
REST OF SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY LGT TO MDT SNOW. STRONG
WNWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
THE FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN LIFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. AS THE STRONG WNWLY WINDS USHER IN COLDER AIR THE CIGS
WILL RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL END
BY EVENING BUT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY BECOMING SCT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NE IL WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI AND
INTO LOWER MI BY NOON TODAY. ELY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
AM AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT STRONG WNWLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BY
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING GALE
FORCE. VERY HIGH WAVES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 3 TO 7
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STRONG LOW WILL THEN MOVE
INTO QUEBEC CANADA FOR THURSDAY WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL USA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR BRISK WLY WINDS THU AND FRI WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>059-062>064-067>069.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-065-
066-070>072.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...20/GEHRING
