FXUS61 KCLE 261740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1240 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY
SUNDAY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN NY WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA. CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE WORDED THE CLOUD COVER IN THE
ZONES AS VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS THOUGHTS. HOWEVER IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE
DEGREES MORE AT BEST.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. DOESNT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER MIDWEST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
MOVES EAST APPROACHING THE EASTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TONIGHT. THEN
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY...SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
TURN THE WINDS MORE WESTERLY...STARTING TO SETUP SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY 
WEDNESDAY.  MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO HELD 
OFF THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND 
THE LATEST GFS BOTH MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL 
LAKES ON THURSDAY...MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT 
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW 
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN AND FLOW OFF THE 
LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF SCT TO SKC SKIES
OVER NRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BKN-OVC VFR CIGS BUILDING INTO WESTERN SITES THROUGH AFTN
AND THEN CONT EAST TO SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ONLY MENTION
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME BIT OF CONFIDENCE IS AT TOL AND FDY
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLIEST SUN
AFTN/EVENING. 

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN GUSTS. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING STRONGER WINDS...KEPT WINDS AT LOWEST 12KT THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AT SITES. KEPT WINDS A BIT HIGHER GOING INTO SUNDAY
ALSO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. VFR POSSIBLE EARLY TUE WESTERN SITES WITH MVFR CONT
OVER NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCLUDED FRONT NOW NEAR ERIE PA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING.  FLOW WILL 
BECOME BASICALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS A LITTLE 
SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...NOT MOVING IT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  
WINDS APPROACH GALE STRENGTH MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WILL 
HAVE TO WATCH...POTENTIAL FOR THE WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...DJB