FXUS61 KCAR 270755
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL REACH THE MAINE COAST
LATE TODAY THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SHROUDED MUCH OF THE AREA IN FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...
SURFACE TROUGHINESS AND SOME UPSLOPE ALL FAVOR THE HEAVIER RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR WESTERN CWA. FURTHER EAST...
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...BUT MAY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
DOWNEAST AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. AS THE LOWS MOVES INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK LATER TONIGHT SOME MODERATELY COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO PULL INTO THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER 
TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A LIGHT...WET
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FEET.
ELSEWHERE...WET SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN THE
CIRCULATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CAA WILL OCCUR DURING SATURDAY WITH INCREASING STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE WESTERN MTS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BEST CHC
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING SATURDAY REMAINS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1000 FT IN THE WESTERN MTS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS 27/00Z NAM12 FOR
PRECIP AMTS AND SNOW. GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A STRONG OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT PULLS OUT TO THE
MARITIMES DURING SATURDAY. THESE MODELS WOULD PRODUCE UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. NAM12 SHOWS THE WRAP
AROUND OCCLUSION CROSSING THE STATE...BUT TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOW EASTWARD OF THE WESTERN MTS. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
WEAKEN THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE A
MUCH MORE CERTAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN
NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER 40 KTS IS POSSIBLE ON COASTAL
ISLANDS. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL STAY STRONG UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING
SUNDAY. THIS MEANS SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN THE BGR
AREA...NOT SUCH LUCK UP NORTH WHERE THE EVER PERSISTENT STRATOCU
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING SUNDAY. BETWEEN THE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW THIRTIES THIS WEEKEND, IT SHOULD BE QUITE
A DEPARTURE FROM THE RECENT MILD CONDITIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TOWARDS MAINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS MAINE BY LATE
MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NARROWED THE TRACK TO THE STATE OF MAINE
FOR NOW...A BIG IMPROVEMENT OVER THE RANGE FROM QUEBEC TO NOVA
SCOTIA OFFERED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY. WITH THE TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL MAINE, HAVE LOADED GRIDS WITH SNOW IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, A MIXTURE IN THE CENTRAL AREA DOWN TOWARD BGR AND
RAIN IN THE COASTAL AREAS. STRONG CAA FOLLOWS AND SHOULD CHANGE IT
ALL OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LEAN ON THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES QUICKLY AND DOESN'T TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ADVISORY IN FAR NORTH, BUT THERE'S
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE. HAVE
ONLY GONE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST. FOLLOWING THIS STORM,
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOLLOWS WITH THE FIRST DAY OF
SUBFREEZING HIGH TEMPS IN MUCH OF THE AREA TUES. HAVE NOT GONE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANTLY LOW NIGHTTIME TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO
WINDS AND STRATOCU. BY THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH, BUT
THERE'S QUESTION WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS MAINE OR
GO OUT TO SEA.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH VERY GUSTY
NW WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. INTERMITTENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND IN MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS
WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO MOSTLY VFR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM: LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND IFR
CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN
SOUTH (BGR) ON TUESDAY AND MVFR NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY LIKELY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL REQUIRED
THROUGH SUNDAY. 

LONG TERM:  SEAS AND WINDS WILL CALM BRIEFLY MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SCA BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MWALKER
LONG TERM...MWALKER
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/MWALKER