FXUS61 KILN 250949
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT ALREADY WORKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES. HOWEVER THERE ARE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL
SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SO STILL EXPECT ALL
LOCATIONS TO GET MEASURABLE RAIN. JUST THAT THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY BE IN THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL RISE.
BUT WITH BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION BELIEVE THAT THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE. AND GIVEN WARM READING JUST TO THE SOUTH HAVE
GONE WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PIECES OF
ENERGY BEING SHED TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ONLY WARRANTS LOW
CHANCE POPS. BUT AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...00Z MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SWINGING A
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT IN THE VFR CATEGORY HOWEVER MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH. RAIN HAS ALREADY
ARRIVED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE AREA.
AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS WELL AS
VISBYS. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO PICK UP...HOWEVER
INVERSION WILL KEEP WINDS FROM GUSTING MORE THAN GENERALLY IN THE
20 KT TO 30 KT RANGE. DID CONTINUE WIND SHEAR MENTION IN THE TAFS
WITH WINDS AT TWO THOUSAND FEET BEING STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
THAN AT THE SURFACE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY AND AS IT MOVES THROUGH COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. BY THE TIME PRECIP HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW IT WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AND THEREFORE HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A VCSH
MENTION.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
