FXUS62 KMFL 271953
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
253 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WILL SLIDE
EAST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATER SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BACK MORE TO THE EAST AS A WEAK FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE LAKE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALLS.
THE FRONT THEN MOVES NORTH AS A LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT IN THE
WESTERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN 
TEXAS. THIS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIVES AND DEEPENS THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN TURN MOVES AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR 2 THINGS. THE
ECMWF DOESN'T PUSH THE FIRST FRONT DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AND THE GULF
LOW RIDES NORTHEAST UP THE INLAND SOUTHEAST U.S.

FOR TONIGHT, ADDED IN PATCHY FROST FOR MIN TEMPS ABOUT 36 OR 37
OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY AND THIS WILL BE IN NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR A WIND CHILL PROBLEM.
MODERATION BEGINS SUNDAY IN TEMPS. SLIGHT CHC OF POPS START
TUESDAY AND BECOME CHC WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE 6 FOOT SEAS
WILL BECOME 3 FOOT OR LESS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TO POSSIBLE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES 7 PM THIS EVENING
ALL AREAS. WE LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE EASTERN AREAS. HAVE JUST ISSUED A RED FLAG FOR SATURDAY
FOR GLADES, HENDRY AND EASTERN COLLIER COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE. FOR SUNDAY ON, THERE WILL BE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  46  72  59  80 / 0 0 -  10 
FORT LAUDERDALE  51  74  64  80 / 0 0 -  10 
MIAMI            51  74  62  81 / 0 0 -  10 
NAPLES           45  71  53  80 / 0 0 -  -  

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
     FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-
     FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ067-FLZ069-FLZ071-FLZ073-FLZ075-FLZ174.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ063-
     FLZ066-FLZ070.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB