FXUS62 KTBW 051821
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
121 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CLEAR...BUT CLOUDINESS REMAINS. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS
LOWS INTO THE MID 30S NORTH...AROUND 40 INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE COAST CENTRAL...AND LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 COASTAL
SOUTH. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH...UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER 70S SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...MID 50S TO AROUND 60
CENTRAL AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH...UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S CENTRAL AND LOWER 80S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH
MAIN U/L SUPPORT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NATURE COAST. COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...STALLING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN U/L DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE MAIN FLOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM WITH A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION LIKELY REQUIRED ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS THEREAFTER THROUGH
AROUND 4AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE FL STRAITS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 44 67 59 76 / 5 5 20 10
FMY 49 73 62 82 / 5 10 20 10
GIF 45 69 59 78 / 5 5 20 10
SRQ 46 68 60 77 / 5 5 20 10
BKV 35 66 53 76 / 5 5 20 10
SPG 48 67 60 75 / 5 5 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...13/OGLESBY
