FXUS63 KBIS 012026
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
221 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SIGNIFICANT COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW. WILL SHORTEN UP THE ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST FITTING
IN WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS...THE SOUTHWEST IN PARTICULAR...THAT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE
ACTED TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING THIS
UPPER LOW OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD ADVECTION AT ALL
LEVELS AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION...WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION. LEFT FRIDAY DRY AND COOL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PROBLEMS WITH THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH THE COLDER PATTERN AND ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND
GFS MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES
TO DETAIL. TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY THE MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER
LOW THAT SITS OVER OREGON. THE DIFFERENCES LIE IN THAT THE GFS
HAS MORE RH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF AND SHOWS
FASTER FLOW FURTHER SOUTH. MY THINKING IS THAT THE GFS SEEMS A
BIT OVER DONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. IT WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO MOVE MUCH AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING SITS JUST TO THE
WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SO WE MAY BE IN FOR MORE CLOUDS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT SINCE THIS IS UNCERTAIN I LEFT IT
OUT OF THE GRIDS AND FORECAST.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY COLD AND AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS IN MOST OF THE TAFS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING IN DICKINSON AND WILLISTON
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WAS SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
WILLISTON AND LIGHT SNOW IN MINOT BUT DON'T SEE ANY ACCUMULATION
AND THIS WILL END BY EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES MAY EXIST HOWEVER.
ON WEDNESDAY SKIES SHOULD BE MVFR TO IFR BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY. CHANCES FOR SOME PEEKS OF THE SUN LOOK BETTER IN THE WEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
009-010-017>021-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ002>005-011>013-022-023-025.
&&
$$
WAA/VJ
