FXUS65 KLKN 031147
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
347 AM PST THU DEC 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYTIME SKIES. A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG...AND DRY...BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING HIGHS
4 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY'S ALREADY COLD TEMPS. A
STRONG 125KT JET WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING TO THE SURFACE DUE TO A
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.

TONIGHT WILL SEE LOWS MAINLY FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW...WITH
LATE NIGHT CIRRUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM FALLING FURTHER. FRIDAY
WILL SEE A BIT OF A RECOVERY AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL DIVE
QUICKLY SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...SLOWING UP AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
NV ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS...WITH
700MB TEMPS FALLING TO -19C NORTH TO -12C SOUTH BY 4 PM/00Z
SUNDAY. THE 06Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR
SATURDAY...AS MSTR WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH CLEAR
SKIES ABOVE. BUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NORTHERN HALF
SATURDAY ARE STILL A PRETTY GOOD BET AS A STRONG TROP FOLD DIPPING
DOWN TO 650MB WILL MOVE THRU THE NORTHEAST...ACCOMPANIED BY LI'S
THAT ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AT LEAST BY WINTER STANDARDS. REA

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AMPLIFIED RIDGE 
OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A BACKDOOR LOW SLIDING DOWN INTO THE PAC NW 
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE 
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...WITH THE EC CONTINUING TO DEPICT THE LOW OVER 
THE PAC NW FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE OFF 
THE OREGON COAST. AS SUCH...EC CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER AND WARMER 
OF THE TWO MODELS FOR THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH ECMWF AND 
GFS MODELS ARE NUDGING THE LOW OVER THE PAC NW SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE 
EAST THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME-FRAME. 

GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN DOES 
THE ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELATIVELY 
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE SLIGHT 
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHT 
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. AT THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY 
NIGHT LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE TO 
NO PRECIP TO VALLEY AREAS. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO 
BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY. 

BOTH GFS AND EC LEANING TOWARD A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR 
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AS WELL. INCREASED POPS AND 
TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH MODELS SHOWING 
CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES FOR DAYS 4-6...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE 
FOR DAY 7 AT THIS TIME. &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND 
NORTHWEST...WITH LOCAL SLOPE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. 
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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