FXUS61 KILN 260552
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1252 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSELY STRONG SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA IT WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS PUNCH BY LATE
SUNDAY. IN THE OHIO VALLEY...THE LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HANG ON TO SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH
LATE EVENING AS FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SLOWED AS IT HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DIMINISHED/SHIFTED
EAST BY 10 PM OR SO. ALSO WATCHING LARGE AREA OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVER CNTL IL/WRN IN BUT TRAJECTORY IS TO TAKE THIS
MORE NORTHEAST INTO NERN IN/NW OHIO. MENTIONED FLURRIES IN
WESTERN/NRN CWA AND WILL WATCH THIS A FEW MORE HOURS AND SEE
WHETHER WE/LL NEED A HIGHER COVERAGE WORDING BUT NOT EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS/WINDS LOOKED ROUGHLY ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CANNOT DEFINITIVELY RULE OUT A STRAY SNOW SHOWER ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN NWRN FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS. OHIO VALLEY STAYS ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
LOW...LIMITING ANY EXTREME TEMPERATURE FALLS ADVECTING IN FROM
SUCH AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL AXIS OF THE LEFTOVER LOW
CROSSES W-E THROUGH OHIO VALLEY...FOLLOWING WHAT IS STILL A CUTOFF
LOW FROM LAKE MICH TO ERN LERI. AFTER THIS TIME...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS UNFAVORABLE OUTSIDE OF IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKE INFLUENCES
AND PRECIP IN REMAINDER OF OHIO SHOULD DROP OFF TO NOTHING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS STARTING OFF AROUND 30 TONIGHT...
DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY
IN A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A STRONG SHORT WAVE. SOME MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ENTER THE PICTURE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS THROUGH OHIO. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY NOT SPREAD IN AS QUICKLY AS
SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST RUN OF ECMWF HAS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN NEXT FRIDAY SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS AT SOME LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THAT
WERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE KCMH AREA AND WILL
EXIT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL AND LOWER CIGS OVER
INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY...HOWEVER WITH NE TREND HAVE JUST LOWERED
CIGS AT THIS TIME BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z. BELIEVE THE SNOW SHOWERS
THAT ARE REDUCING VISBYS IN INDIANA WILL GENERALLY MOVE NW OF THE
TAF SITES AND IF TAF SITES DO RECEIVE SNOWFALL IT WILL NOT BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISBYS. SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER KENTUCKY
AND HAVE SCATTERED OUT CLOUDS AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 09Z TO 10Z. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN HOWEVER
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY UP
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK
