FXUS61 KBTV 102103
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS COLDER IS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER IS
EXITING EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN IS CAUSING SOME
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EVEN TOMORROW. THEN THIS
WEEKEND EXPECT THE COLDEST AIRMASS THUS FAR OF THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 334 PM EST THURSDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE
ALLOWING THE PRIMARY BAND...OF LK ONTARIO...IS SHIFTING SOUTH.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING. IN VT
THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT BAND IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GREENS...AND
AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH IT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREENS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
TIES TO LK SUPERIOR WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...GIVING THE NORTHERN GREENS AND NORTHER DACKS ADDITIONAL
SNOWS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT WARNING UNTIL SHOWERS HAVE
TRULY DIMINISHED. ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 1-6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE GREENS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS AS THIS
IS THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE PRIMARY BAND
OFF OF LK ONTARIO.

WITH THE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTS
TO 40-50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...THE
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE GREENS. ELSEWHERE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE A
BIT OF A LULL TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE AS WE WILL NOT MIX TO
STRONGEST WINDS DOWN...BUT TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY COOL
TO THE 20S AND TEENS. WIND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD WITH 850 TEMPS OF -16
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE
WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WE WILL NOT SEE AS FAVORABLE A LAKE
FETCH AS WE SAW TODAY. BUT...WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY WE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE AGAIN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY FRIDAY...AND EVEN SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO
ABOUT 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DACKS AND ALSO EAST
FACING SLOPES.

FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE REGION OVER
HEAD WITH 850 TEMPS OF -16 TO -18. WITH CLOUD COVER AND WIND NOT
AS MUCH AN IMPACT AS TONIGHT... WE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WIDESPREAD THROUGH OUT THE AREA. EVEN A
FEW SUB ZERO TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN COLD POCKETS OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND THE DACKS. ON SATURDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. WHILE OUR AIRMASS WARMS A TAD... THESE CLEARER CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR COLD TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST THURSDAY...CLDS/PRECIP/WX...CD AIR IN PLACE FOR
ENTIRE EXTENDED WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO BE AS SNOW. SFC LOW
WILL PASS E OVER DELMARVA REGION SUN INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR -SW
IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...W/ FLURRIES/--SW TO THE
NORTH. GD PORTION OF MONDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN OVER
THE AREA AND SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST MON NGT WITH APPROACH OF
NEXT SYSTEM. SFC LOW TRACK FOR TUESDAY SWINGS SFC LOW JUST TO OUR
N...BUT ASSOCIATED FRNT ACROSS THE REGION..FOR A ROUND OF LGT -SW.
W/ LOW TO OUR N AND RIDGE BLOCKING OFFSHORE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM. STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP BEHIND THIS FRNT
WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST FOR WED/THURS. STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH WILL
ENSUE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS SFC LOW FROM EXITING SYSTEM STALLS
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY -SW OVER NORTHERN CWA...W/ HIR ELEVATIONS SEEING BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY ACCUM DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE EFFECTS.

TEMPS...FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL AS SEASONAL VALUES GO. NO STRONG CAA EXPECTED WITH CLD
COVER FROM SYSTEM SUN NGT/MON...AND SETUP OF RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRNT. 850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO
-10C...DURING THIS TIME...W/ POTENTIAL FOR SURGE OF WARM AIR FOR
WESTERN ZONES AHEAD OF TUESDAY FROPA WHERE 850 TEMPS NEAR 0C. TUES
NG THRU THURSDAY WITH SETUP OF NORTHERLY FETCH OVER CWA...STRONG
CAA WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA W/ 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM -14C TO
-20C...ESPECIALLY FOR WED/THURS. DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME TEMPS COULD
RANGE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL DUE TO PROLONGED CAA ON
NORTH WINDS.

WINDS...WK SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND DOES EVENTUALLY 
BECM LGT/VAR W/ LOW PASSING E OVER DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA. LGT/VAR 
WINDS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE CORRIDOR...BUT 
LATE IN DAY SOUTHERLY WINDS INCR FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF FRNTL 
BOUNDARY. SSW WINDS REMAIN INTO TUESDAY WITH SLOW FRNTL MVMNT. NW 
WINDS ENSUE TUES NGT THRU THURSDAY. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED W/ FRNT 
STALLS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TIGHT GRADINET DEVELOPS AS SF 
CHIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL FUNNEL STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS(POTENTIAL OF 30-40MPH+...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN...IN BUFKIT) 
OVER CWA...ENHANCING PRECIP FOR NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PERSISTENT WESTERLY/NWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE 
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. CONDITIONS WILL VARY DURING THIS TIME
FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR(BKN015-030)...MAINLY FROM LK EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...OTHERWISE FLURRIES POSSBL. CEILINGS LOWEST
NEAR VCNTY OF ANY -SW THAT MAY DEVELOP. VSBY WILL RANGE FROM 2-5SM
DURING MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-30KTS W/
GUSTS TO 40-50KTS.

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WEST WINDS 15-25 KTS ON FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KTS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW SHWRS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK. MAINLY VFR ON SAT/SAT NITE AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACRS THE REGION. AREAS OF MVFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ006>008-010-012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003-
     006-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ031-
     034.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ029-030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMF
NEAR TERM...AMF
SHORT TERM...AMF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN