FXUS61 KALY 290534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE 
OUR WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND BRING MORE 
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE GUSTY WINDS THAT AFFECTED THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY 
HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WEST. THEY WERE 
STILL GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 

SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION WEST OF THE HUDSON 
RIVER INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
EAST OF THE CATSKILLS AND THE HUDSON RIVER.  TEMPERATURES WERE 
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A FLOW OF COOL AND MOIST AIR FROM 
SOUTHERN CANADA...OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND OVER THE TERRAIN 
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL TEND TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST...PARTLY 
CLOUD OVER THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND GREEN MOUNTAINS OF 
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY 
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY OCCUR WHERE 
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLOUD DECK 
WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE REGION UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
     ASIDE FROM THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NY...SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CT...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.  

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 9PM...WITH MOST SITES TILL IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE 
CLOUD DECK PREVENTING RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAVE RAISED 
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS UP NORTH...RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT ECHOES
ALTHOUGH ONLY KRME IS REPORTING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. 

HAVE TWEAKED WIND...WIND GUST...DEWPOINT...AND SKY COVER GRIDS
PER LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.  

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 30S
WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ON SUNDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
WITH SOME WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DID FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SINCE ITS HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE
NAM AND ALSO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE 
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MID 
WEEK RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. 
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERE CONTINUE TO 
BE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL 
IMPACT P-TYPE. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES 
OR EACH OTHER BUT DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE 
REGION. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WERE IN MUCH 
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 12Z/GFS AND 12Z/ECMWF ARE. THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS AN ARRAY OF SURFACE LOW POSITIONS. THE 
MODELS DO INDICATE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN IN BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 3000-5000
FEET OVER KGFL AND KALB. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...THESE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...THEN BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SCATTERED...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF BROKEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR...BUT
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25000 FEET WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY...CONTINUING AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KT
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... 
SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA
MON...MVFR/IFR. -RA/-SN.
TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX. 
THU...MVFR-IFR CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  MAIN STEM 
RIVERS...AND RESERVOIRS WILL RECEDE WITH THE COOL DRY AIR MASS THAT 
WILL BE IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT 
THRU MONDAY.  TOTAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN 
INCH...WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OVER THE ADIRONDACK REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING A 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH TOTAL QPF POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN 
SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...NAS