FXUS62 KTAE 241436
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
935 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...

.SYNOPSIS...THE BIG ITEM THIS MORNING IS THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY 
IN WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD 
FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996MB LOW IN THE TRI-STATE REGION OF 
TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING DOWN FROM 
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE IS 
CENTERED IN EASTERN CANADA SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IN THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SECOND UPPER LOW IS 
NOW ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM ALBERTA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT 
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN TEXAS HAS REACH ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE. 
CLOSER TO HOME AT 14Z...STRATUS COVERED MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH 
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS. TEMPS IN THE CWA RANGED 
FROM UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 
50S...AND WINDS WERE MAINLY EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. OFFSHORE WINDS 
WERE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.UPDATE...
RIGHT NOW...OUR MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE 
ENTERING OUR CWA. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING INTO 
A MORE OR LESS SINGLE LINE. OF COURSE THERE THE DISCRETE CELLS OUT 
IN FRONT OF THE LINE. OUR ESTIMATE FOR SQUALL LINE ARRIVAL IN OUR 
WESTERN ZONES IS 23Z TO 00Z. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RISE 
AS LOW CLOUDS ARE HINDERING WARMING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO 
BE ON TRACK. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY UPDATES AT PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PERSIST 
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY 
DEVELOPING OVER EAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME 
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR/IFR 
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS...BECOMING 25 TO 30 KNOTS 
AND GUSTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY 
CHRISTMAS MORNING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT 
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING 
WINDS...AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT THE BUOYS WERE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST 25 
TO 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 7 TO GREATER THAN 10 FEET. SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. 
WILL ISSUE SCA FOR OUR FAR EASTERN LEGS OF THE MARINE AREA THIS 
MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND 
BEGIN TO DRIVE SURF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BEACHES TO 6 TO 8 
FEET. SO...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WILL GO IN EFFECT AT 
NOON TODAY...AND LATER FOR OUR WESTERN BIG BEND BEACHES THIS 
EVENING. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 
SATURDAY.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
     HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...
     BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...
     DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
     LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.

FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 
     PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY    
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...GULF.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     EST FRIDAY FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER ENTRANCE TO THE SUWANNEE  
     RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FROM DESTIN TO THE 
     OCHLOCKONEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. 
     
&&

$$

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...WATSON