FXUS61 KOKX 271332
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
832 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE TO NO RAIN OBSERVED WESTERN HALF OF CWA THIS MORNING...AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE. WILL LAYER POPS FROM CHANCE
TO THE WEST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL EAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE AREA TODAY AIDING IN AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS THOUGH. SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPS TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND NEAR 50 ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE ME COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE ALL THE WAY UP THE COLUMN. WE HAVE SEEN BEST MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OCCUR WHEN WINDS INTENSIFY ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL BEGIN WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...AND RUN IT THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.
AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS EXIT THE AREA TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE HEIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO
RELAX. COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW. THAT SAID...HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DROP
QUICK ENOUGH TO SEE A STRAY FLAKE MIXED IN BEFORE THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA PRECLUDING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE COOLER AIR
FILTERS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEAVING THE AREA
PRECIP FREE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SKIES TO BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING
THROUGH MON/MON NITE TIME FRAME. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IT TO HAVE CLEARED THE
AREA BY TUESDAY WITH RIDGING MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
PATTERN CONTINUES TO GET COMPLICATED AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS BEGIN TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT/OUT OF AGREEMENT FROM WHAT THEY
WERE JUST 24 HOURS AGO...SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER RESOLUTION BEFORE
TACKLING THE EXTENDED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM W TO E TODAY.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO BE E OF NYC. WINDS WILL BE BIGGEST
IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS LATER TODAY AS LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT CALL ON WIND DIRECTION AT EWR AS WINDS
BACK AROUND TO NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY MAINLY RIGHT OF 310
UNTIL 19-21Z AND LEFT OF 310 AFTER 21Z. GUSTS WILL EXCEED 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY GUST OVER 30 KTS AFTER 00Z.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN +/- 1 HOUR THAN FORECAST. WINDS
COULD ALSO STAY RIGHT OF OR ON 310 UNTIL 22Z-00Z.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
27/12Z 35010KT
27/13Z 34011KT
27/14Z 33013G20KT
27/15Z 32014G21KT
27/16Z 32015G22KT
27/17Z 32017G24KT
27/18Z 31018G25KT
27/19Z 31018G25KT
27/20Z 31019G26KT
27/21Z 31019G26KT
27/22Z 30019G30KT
27/23Z 30019G30KT
KJFK...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.
KLGA...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.
KTEB...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN +/- 1 HOUR THAN FORECAST.
KHPN...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN +/- 1 HOUR THAN FORECAST.
KSWF...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN +/- 1 HOUR THAN FORECAST.
KISP...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN +/- 1 HOUR THAN FORECAST.
KBDR...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN +/- 1 HOUR THAN FORECAST.
KGON...VFR CONDS MAY RETURN A FEW HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. STRONG GUSTY W/NW WINDS.
SUN...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES JUST EAST OF THE WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. GALES LIKELY BY LATE DAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM.
GALES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS (STORM FORCE) LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THESE WINDS WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. AS SUCH...GALE WARNING REMAINS.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS
BACK TO THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS IN STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALL WATERS. WESTERLY FETCH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT CLOSELY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN
1/10 INCH WEST OF NYC...TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER EASTERN LONG
ISLAND/CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
2 TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
NOT TOO LOW. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR LOW WATER/BLOW OUT TIDES
OCCURS SATURDAY AROUND LOW TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS THIRD PERIOD. AS
SUCH...STILL SOME TIME TO CONSIDER LOW WATER ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ067>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
