FXUS61 KOKX 061741
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1241 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW TODAY IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW. NW WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...SOME
CIRRUS LATE. TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE AND
MOS...LOWER 40S CITY/COAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES IN
CAA FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTY MAY HAVE
TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE MID 30S WITH NEWLY FALLEN SNOW COVER -
HIGH ALBEDO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. INCREASING
CIRRUS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT...BUT TEMPS ACROSS FAR OUTLYING
ARES MAY STILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS...GENERALLY
20S ELSEWHERE...AROUND FREEZING NYC METRO.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND RESULTANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND THEN JUST N OF THE REGION MON EVE. LACK OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING WILL MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY PASSAGE...WITH HIGH
AND MID DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWER LATE MONDAY/MON EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA MON NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FILTERED BY INCREASING AFTERNOON CIRRUS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING MIDWEST
SYSTEM.
WITH REGION ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS DURING
PERIOD...TEMPS MON AND TUES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...GENERALLY LOWER 40S CITY/COAST AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 INTERIOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUES
NIGHT. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRIMARY LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT DISAGREE ON SECONDARY LOW EVOLUTION. EITHER
WAY...THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. ENOUGH COLD
AIR MAY HOLD ON INITIALLY FOR SOME MIXED PCPN...PARTICULARLY
INTERIOR ZONES...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...GUSTY W WINDS EXPECTED WITH COLDER TEMPS TO
END THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES EAST DURING MONDAY.
NY METRO WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 20 KT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MON-TUE...VFR.
WED...SUB-VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THU...VFR WITH W GUSTY WINDS.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRES ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE BELOW SCA LEVELS (5 FT).
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS THROUGH THE WATERS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS
BY MID-WEEK...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT QPF WED AND WED NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH OF
LIQUID QPF.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MET
