FXUS61 KILN 260552
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1252 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SHOWER CHANCES INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN
NORTHERN LOCATIONS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING BREAK IN PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT FROPA THURS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH
AND BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING. LIGHT QPF AND NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY ACCUM WITH WARM GROUND AND SHORT DURATION
OF SNOWFALL. SOME FLURRIES/WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
BEFORE DRYING AND WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SETS IN. TEMPS AT OR JUST
BELOW GUID THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING OF 
THE EXTENDED WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS 
NEAR AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURS...WITH 
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE 
NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH 
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. PREFER TO DISREGARD THE 12Z ECMWF 
WHICH SHOWS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY AND RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS OVER 
THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE 
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE GFS ENS MEMBERS. SIDED CLOSE TO THE 
GFS ENS MEAN SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A CHANCE OF 
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY 
NIGHT...BUT IF THE SYSTEM STAYS PROGRESSIVE AS EXPECTED...THIS WOULD 
ONLY BE A FEW FLAKES. 12Z GFS SHOWS DOUBLE-BARREL LOW CYCLOGENESIS 
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THINK THIS IS OVER 
DONE AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS WHERE THERE
ARE SOME MVFR CEILINGS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY
ONLY AFFECT KDAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING
AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS BRINGING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING AT MOST
TERMINALS. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES LIKELY AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...