FXUS64 KTSA 090326
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PLAINS SNOW STORM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND UP FAST WHILE
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND
WEST OF I-35 IN THE 35 TO 45 BALLPARK THIS EVENING.
BURBANK REACHING 41 THIS HOUR. POSTED WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 6 AM OKFUSKEE TO OTTAWA COUNTIES & NORTHWEST.
ALSO RAISED WINDS ELSEWHERE. A CHANCE FLURRIES POST
FRONT BUT NO ACCUMULATION. PRECIP ABOUT OVER 1 AM.
WE DID NOT GET THE WHITE PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
BUT PLENTY OF COLD WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUD DECK AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FRONT WILL
LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE. BEHIND FRONT...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE WEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH ENE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. SCATTERED LIGHT RA/SN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 06 UTC FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIXING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 412.
LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
OUT OF THE CWA BY 06 UTC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA ACROSS THE
CWA.
BEHIND THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER TO THE MID 20S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO OVER 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...CREATING WIND CHILLS FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS COLD AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THE WEEK WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH TO
SOUTH. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GFS/ECMWF PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA FOR THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON TO SAT MORNING...HOWEVER LATEST RUNS
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH PRECIP FOR FRI AND EXTENDED IT INTO
SAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF
FOR MON/TUES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS MODEL RUNS
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 20 26 13 35 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 23 33 17 38 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 22 32 16 38 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 17 24 9 34 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 19 28 12 35 / 20 10 0 0
BYV 20 28 13 34 / 20 10 0 0
MKO 22 30 14 36 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 19 25 10 34 / 20 10 0 0
F10 21 28 14 36 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 25 37 20 40 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
OKZ066-OKZ067.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
