FXUS61 KBTV 041139
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 406 AM EST FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVG THRU EASTERN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TDY...WHILE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER THE GRTLKS. CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GRTLKS MSTR TO OVRSPRD FORECAST AREA TDY...
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT OR OROGRAPHIC SNOW/RAIN SHWRS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO OVER THE ADRNDKS...EXTENDING INTO THE NRN GREEN MTNS
THIS PM. HIGHEST POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OVER THE ADRNDKS AND
SRN PORTION OF THE ST LWR VLY...WHILE LOWEST POPS WILL BE EAST OF
THE GREENS AND OVER SRN VT WHERE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANY
PCPN THAT FALLS IN THE VLYS WILL BE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
OVER THE HIR TRRN SNOW OR A MIX SNOW/RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. ANY
SNOW ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPS STILL RATHER MILD ACRS THE RGN
THIS MORNING...BUT WITH GRADUAL CAA CONTINUING...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH OF A REBOUND IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH 30S OVR HIR TRRN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EST FRIDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHWRS OVER ADRNDKS AND NRN
GREENS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WEAKENING WESTERLY FLOW AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM OH VLY...EXPECT A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY BY MORNING.
ON SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO RGN DURING THE
MORNING. STG SHRTWV MOVG ACRS TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWRD SAT PM/NITE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
IS PROGGED TO BE OFF THE CAROLINA CST EARLY SATURDAY...THEN DEEPEN
WHILE MOVG TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK AND ON ANY PSBL IMPACT TO
FORECAST AREA...BUT THEY HAVE ALL TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH/WEST FROM 24 HRS AGO...SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF SNOW FOR
SAT PM/EVENING FOR SRN/ERN VT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE RGN ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING A DRY
AND SEASONABLY CHILLY END TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
PASS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO OUR NORTH. THEN A ROBUST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD
KEEP OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH MOSTLY
RAIN EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST COLD AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT OF RAIN OR SNOW
THAT CAN BE EXPECTED...AND STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN
VERMONT...AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA IN ABOUT THREE
HOURS. WINDS ARE JUMPING FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO GUSTY AND OUT
OF THE WSW. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEREFORE
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TROF APPROACHES CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
18Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW...AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
12Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV REMAINS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RECORD LATEST DATE IS WITHIN SIGHT.
FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS
NOVEMBER 6TH. HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON
GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT
FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/?/2009 ????
4. 12/1/1948 40.7
5. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
8. 11/28/1913 56.5
9. 11/27/1941 57.7
10. 11/26/1982 80.5
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...BTV
