FXUS61 KBTV 101735
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1235 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH ONTARIO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREENS. THEN THIS WEEKEND EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS THUS FAR OF THE SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EST THURSDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE
PRODUCED RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH MODERATE SNOW ALSO REPORTED PORTIONS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VT. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY FASHION WE ARE SEEING THE BAND OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO VEER INTO THE CENTRAL GREENS AND EVENTUALLY THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SW TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
WHERE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION AND TO...
--CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.
--UPGRADE THE ADVISORY TO A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY... AND
INCLUDE SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY OF NY.
--ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...LAMOILLE COUNTY AND ORLEANS COUNTY IN VT.
--THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK REMAINS INTACT.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP EARLY THIS
MORNING...PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP IN CENTRAL SAINT
LAWRENCE COUNTY. WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING
TO 30 MPH. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RESULTING FROM RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
DEPARTURE OF LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP THE AREA WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 50 MPH. AS OVERALL FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND IMPACT A GREATER AREA OF THE WESTERN
GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
EFFECT THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY THE KILLINGTON
AREA AND EVEN JAY PEAK AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR CLRING SKIES. SOME --SW
POSSIBLE FOR NE VT W/ NW FLOW...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS
RIDGE CRESTS OVER AREA. ALSO LK EFFECT BAND FALLS APART AS WELL SO
POSSBL TO SEE LINGERING --SW OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA/VT BFR IT TAPERS OFF DURING THE MORNING HRS. TEMPS WILL DROP
GOING INTO SAT NGT AS SKIES CLR W/ CALM WINDS. HAVE GONE BLW MDL
NUMBERS FOR OVERNGT LOWS. RIDGE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE TOWARDS SUN
MORNING ALLOWING FOR SSW WINDS TO WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE ST LAW
VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. NO PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNGT...BUT INCR
CLD COVER FOR FAR W CWA. NEXT SFC LOW TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA BY SUN. EXPECTING QPF TO BE LGT BASED ON
SFC LOW TRACK TO THE N...BUT WITH CD POOL OF 850 TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN TO -22C/-26C BY EVENING FROM DAY HIGHS NEAR -8C. POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SQUALLS/FLASH FREEZE AS THIS PUSHES E...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. W/ THIS FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NNW ALLOWING FOR LEFTOVER UPSLOPE -SW MONDAY MORNING...CLRING BY
MDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PERSISTENT WESTERLY/NWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. CONDITIONS WILL VARY DURING THIS TIME
FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR(BKN015-030)...MAINLY FROM LK EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...OTHERWISE FLURRIES POSSBL. CEILINGS LOWEST
NEAR VCNTY OF ANY -SW THAT MAY DEVELOP. VSBY WILL RANGE FROM 2-5SM
DURING MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-30KTS W/
GUSTS TO 40-50KTS.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WEST WINDS 15-25 KTS ON FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KTS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW SHWRS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK. MAINLY VFR ON SAT/SAT NITE AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACRS THE REGION. AREAS OF MVFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003-
006-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ031-
034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029-030.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...AMF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
