FXUS61 KBTV 290324
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE ACTION
ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EST SATURDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD
OUR REGION FROM THE WEST IS ENHANCING CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM OF US.
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THUS EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING TOWARD MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT AND HAVE ADJUSTED SKY
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IDEA OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY STILL LOOKING TRANQUIL AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH AGAIN WILL TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/ST LAWRENCE
RIVER EARLY MONDAY. NOT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM NOR DOES IT HAVE A
LOT OF MOISTURE (LOOKING AT ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH OF QPF) HOWEVER
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE DICEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MAY FACE A MIX OF RAIN/FRZ RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD...HOWEVER
AT THE LOWEST LEVELS COLDER AIR IS LIKELY TO HANG TOUGH. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE A COLD NORTHEAST
DRAINAGE FLOW WIND DOWN THE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE IN PLACE.
HAVE PAINTED INTO THE FCST GRIDDED DATABASE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION
NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON
WHAT AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A PRECIP MIX. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIP...SO SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 1-2INCHES. HOWEVER...EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
CAN MAKE THINGS SLICK.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
IN...AND BY MONDAY EVENING 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO -8 TO -12C.
SO EXPECT EVERYONE TO SEE THE PRECIP END AS A BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW. AGAIN...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR ACCUMULATIONS. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE...IT MAY ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATER FORECASTS WILL HOPEFULLY FINE TUNE THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
PRECIP EVENT...SO PLEASE CHECK BACK HERE LATER.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKING CLOUDY BUT DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST IS FOR STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXACT TRACK OF STORM IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN. GFS BRINGS TRACK OF LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH
WOULD BRING OUR FORECAST AREA MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE LOW TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE COLD AIR AND GIVE US MOSTLY
SNOW FOR THE EVENT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT...DAYS 6
AND 7...THEREFORE DID NOT GO TO HIGH WITH POPS AS MANY THINGS CAN
AND WILL CHANGE BEFORE THEN. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THEN WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. MORE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK IF THE FLOW TURNS SW ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND AS A RESULT...EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW
YORK...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. EXPECT
VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATE IN THE DAY AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STORM BUT SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY A LARGE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
