FXUS63 KLMK 271137
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
637 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SUNSHINE TO RETURN TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
WX SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SNOWFLAKES HAS
DEPARTED TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR
NRN/ERN FA ATTM.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF OUR FA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE CLEARING FROM W TO E AS
WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL BACK TO MORE WLY TOWARD 12Z. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
STILL BE PREVALENT FROM LOUISVILLE N AND E AT SUNRISE WITH THE NRN
BLUEGRASS AND SERN INDIANA THE LAST TO CLEAR.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL
FLATTEN A BIT AS IT REACHES THE MS VLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE MID MS NARROW SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE TDA. SKIES
SHUD BE CLR OR TOTALLY CLEARING TNGT EAST AS RIDGE AXIS REACHES FAR
ERN KY...WITH RETURN SLY FLO BEGINNING...ESPECIALLY THE 2ND HALF OF
THE NIGHT.
TEMPS TDA WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COLDEST WHERE CLDS LINGER THE
LONGEST...OVER THE NRN BLUEGRASS REGION AND SERN INDIANA. THERE
EXPECT LOWER-MID 40S. ELSEWHERE...MID 40 TO LOWER 50 DEG MAXS
EXPECTED WITH THE MILDEST READINGS IN OUR SWRN MOST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY - THURSDAY)...
A BEAUTIFUL START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOWS POSITIONED ON BOTH COASTS. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
UNDER THIS REGIME TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S OVER THE
BLUEGRASS TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF SO HAVE
BLENDED THE FORECAST...LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF. WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...THOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH ABOVE
LOWS WITH ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURES WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAINS
SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS TUES-THURS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS(MVFR)WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
AT LEX AND SDF IN ARREARS OF SHRTWV TROF AXIS ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH WLY WINDS AT
CLOUD LEVEL. VFR CONDS WILL SETTLE IN BY AFTN FOR ALL TAF SITES AS
UPR LEVEL NW FLO RELAXES AND NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM
THE MID MS VLY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF OUR REGION RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN SLY FLO.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........DK/11
LONG TERM.........EES
AVIATION..........DK/11
