FXUS61 KBTV 261206
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION ALL DAY FRIDAY RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COUPLE MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...NEXT MONDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 337 AM EST THURSDAY...WK RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WEDGED BETWEEN FRNT OFFSHORE AND BROAD LOW CIRCULATING
OVER GREAT LKS/S ONTARIO. THE SQUEEZE WILL BE PUT ON THE REGION
DURING THE DAY AS SFC LOW ALONG FRNTL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH AND LOW
OVER GREAT LKS WORKS EAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN BREAK FOR CLD COVER PURPOSES AND WILL GO WITH
MAINLY MCLDY SKIES AND EVEN A SL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER N NY.
SOME LGT -RW SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL OBS AND THAT AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW DURING THE DAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO N NY.
MDLS HAVE DIFFERED ALL WEEK ON PLACEMENT OF LOW OFF THE COAST BY
TNGT...AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GREAT LKS LOW INTERACTS WITH IT.
COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BECM PRIMARY WX MAKER FOR THE CWA GOING INTO
THE OVERNGT. TEMPS ABV FREEZING WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN
FOR ALL AREAS...BUT EXPECT TO INCR FROM SE TO NW AS COASTAL LOW
CIRCULATION DRAGS ATLANTIC MOISTURE N AND W INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST THURSDAY...MAIN WX FOR THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM S NEW
ENG ALONG COAST INTO MAINE AND INTO SE QUEBEC BY FRI NGT. BROAD
EXPANSE OF RAIN WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. MDL QPF
COULD REACH NEAR AN INCH IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN E VT BASED ON
LOW TRACK. FIRST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE FRI NGT AS
SFC LOW TRAVERSES INTO SE QUEBEC. THIS WILL SHIFT WIND FLOW FROM
ESE TO MORE NNW. THIS IN TURN WILL DRAG IN CD AIR ON BACKSIDE OF
SYSTEM AND CHANGE OVER RAIN TO SNOW...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. W/
COPIOUS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED ON THIS WRAP AROUND FLOW...ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NC NE VT
AS WELL AS THE DACKS FRI NGT INTO SAT. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUM AMTS OF MAINLY 3-6 INCHES FOR NW
AREAS...TAPERING DOWN TO NEAR NOTHING IN VALLEY LOCALES ALTHOUGH
VALLEYS MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SAT MORN. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
ON ISSUANCE OF WINTER WX PRODUCT AS EVENT TOTALS WOULD NOT BE
REACHED TIL CLOSE TO 4TH PERIOD. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY 2ND CONCERN FOR THE CWA IN THE FORM OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THAT MAY REACH 30-40 MPH OVERNGT INTO SAT MORN. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS WELL AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIR ELEV SEEING CHANCE FOR LGT ACCUM BFR
ENDING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST THURSDAY...LGT -SW EXPECTED TO WANE FOR PORTIONS
OF CWA SAT NGT AS SLOW MVG SYSTEM EXITS EAST W/ RIDGE MVG E FOR
SUN MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ABATE FROM W TO E AS WELL
TOWARDS SUN MORN. A COUPLE MORE LOWS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING
THE LATE SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A FRNTL BOUNDARY MONDAY. FRNT POSITIONED OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW MEANDERING ACROSS IT WILL HIGHLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
MORE FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. CD AIR AHEAD OF PRECIP WILL ALLOW FOR -SW
TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY MON NGT/TUES MORNING. WEAKENING RETURN NW
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR -SW TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TUESDAY W/ RIDGE
BUILDING OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME
LOCAL POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 02Z
FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...MVFR WITH
SCATTERED IFR IN DEVELOPING HEAVY...COLD RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR IN RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MTNS.
SATURDAY...IFR IN SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN AND SNOW
ELSEWHERE...CHANGING TO SNOW BY EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS.
SUNDAY...BECMG VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
MONDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT
OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST MEASURABLE
SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST
SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL
TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
5. 11/30/1953 83.6
6. 11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES
CLIMATE...NASH
