FXUS61 KOKX 031526
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1026 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW WILL PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
REGION AND RAPID CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. STRATOCU OFF TO THE WEST
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HAVE REINTRODUCED
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING LEAVING LESS CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND
WILL DROP WIND ADVISORY AS THE PREDOMINANT WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY XPCTD TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 30KT SAVE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS WHERE GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
TEMP FORECAST CHALLENGING TODAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS REGIONWIDE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN A FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND MODEST COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE WARMER
LOCATIONS ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. THIS REPRESENTS A DROP OF 25
DEG FROM THIS MORNINGS TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SOMEWHAT BETTER CONSENSUS ON A SFC LOW PASSING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REINFORCES COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SNOW. HOWEVER WATERS TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S SHOULD WIN OUT AS
LONG AS THERE IS AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. THE EC AND NAM ARE THE
"SNOWIEST"...AND ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD NUDGE TO THE EC WOULD BRING
AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TO LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT.
OVERALL THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PTYPE FOR NOW THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER SUN INTO MON...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TUE. A WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER STORM WITH COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WED EVENING
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPORARY LULL WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH FEW GUSTS. AS DAYTIME
MIXING INCREASES...SUSTAINED SW TO W WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AROUND 3 PM.
VFR TODAY WITH SCT CLOUDS...WITH A PERIOD OF BKN VFR INSTABILITY
CU POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS DURING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
03/14Z 24017G24KT
03/15Z 25017G24KT
03/16Z 25020G30KT
03/17Z 25020G30KT
03/18Z 25018G28KT
03/19Z 25016G26KT
03/20Z 26016G26KT
03/21Z 26015G25KT
03/22Z 27014G21KT
03/23Z 27013G20KT
KJFK 031409Z 0314/0418 24016G24KT P6SM FEW040
FM031600 24020G30KT P6SM SCT040
TEMPO 0316/0319 BKN040
FM032300 28015G25KT P6SM SKC
FM040300 28012KT P6SM SKC
FM041400 28010KT P6SM SCT250
KJFK COMMENTS: FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
KLGA 031409Z 0314/0412 24016G24KT P6SM FEW040
FM031600 24020G30KT P6SM SCT040
TEMPO 0316/0319 BKN040
FM032300 28015G25KT P6SM SKC
FM040300 29012KT P6SM SKC
KLGA COMMENTS: FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
KTEB 031409Z 0314/0412 25015G23KT P6SM FEW040
FM031600 25019G29KT P6SM SCT040
TEMPO 0316/0320 BKN040
FM032200 28010G16KT P6SM SKC
FM040200 30006KT P6SM SKC
KTEB COMMENTS: FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
KHPN 031409Z 0314/0412 25014G22KT P6SM FEW040
FM031600 25017G27KT P6SM SCT040
TEMPO 0316/0319 BKN040
FM032200 29012G18KT P6SM SKC
FM040300 31007KT P6SM SKC AMD NOT SKED
KHPN COMMENTS: FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
OTHER TERMINALS
KSWF COMMENTS: FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
KISP COMMENTS: FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
KBDR COMMENTS: FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
KGON COMMENTS: FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED UNLESS STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VFR.
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.
SUN TROUGH MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. SCA WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER ALL THE
WATERS...THOUGH THE END TIME OF THE SCA IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION
FOR NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND.
SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC COAST HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 15 FT WITH 3-5
FT ON THE SOUND. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY START TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY... BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRI...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AGAIN ON THE
GOCEAN SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES SOUTH/EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION...AND NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.5 INCHES OR MORE) IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PASSING COASTAL LOW SATURDAY COULD BRING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF LIQUID...WITH SOME OF IT FALLING AS SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT RESIDUAL WATER LEVEL RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT. BASED ON CURRENT
GAUGE OBSERVATIONS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING DURING
HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE REPLACED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
WITH AN ADVISORY FOR FOR NORTHSHORE NASSAU AND QUEENS TO COVER
MINOR FLOODING THROUGH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH TIDE
PASSED IN FAR SOUTHEAST CT AND THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED. EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP REMAINDER
OF COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH WAVES ALREADY LARGE AT ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THERE...ALSO HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND A BLOW OUT TIDE WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT ON LI SOUND WITH BLOW OUT TIDES
GOING TO -2 TO -3 FT MLLW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009>011.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-073-076>078.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ075>077-
080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MANNING
NEAR TERM...MANNING
SHORT TERM...BC/BS
LONG TERM...BC/BS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MANNING
HYDROLOGY...BS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MANNING
