FXUS61 KBGM 010818
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/WV AND WEAK SFC TROF TO PASS THE RGN THIS MRNG. AREA OF SHSN
ACRS WRN NY WILL WORK INTO CNTRL NY EARLY THIS MRNG...AND THEN
OFF TO THE NE BY LATE MRNG. RETAINED LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG...WITH GRADIENT TO SLGT CHC POPS ACRS SE ZONES.
SOME WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE ACRS NRN ONEIDA WHERE WE KEPT LIKELY POPS
THIS AFTN...OTRW JUST SLGT CHC FOR -SHRA/-SHSN. ACCUMS ACRS THE
NORTH CNTRY XPCTD TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. CLEARING SKIES LATER
TNGT AS WEAK RIDGING OCCURS. MAXES TDA XPCTD TO GET INTO THE
L/M40S ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER/FINGER LAKES AND NE PA...WHERE WE
COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. SKIES XPCTD TO CLEAR OUT MOST
AREAS TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL WED MRNG WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLDS
XPCTD TO INCREASE IN THE AFTN AS A DEEP TROF DVLPS OVER THE CNTRL
U.S...EJECTING THE UPR LOW CRNTLY OVER THE SW U.S.. MDLS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW TRACK INTO CNTRL/WRN NY BY 12Z THU.
RETAINED CAT POPS GIVEN XTRMLY GOOD DYNAMICS. PWATS UP TO ARND
1.25 WITH POTNL FOR SOME +RA...EVEN A FEW TSRA ACRS ERN ZONES IF
SI/LI FIELDS ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS WILL BE INTERESTING WED
NGT. POTNL FOR TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...BUT FOR NOW
PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS GNRLY STEADY IN THE
M/U40S...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NO DOUBT BE REFINING THE TEMPS.
STEADY PCPN SHIELD SHUD BE EXITING THE AREA ON THU MRNG...GUSTY
WSW WINDS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME LAKE INFLUENCE GET
INTO NRN ONNEIDA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT SUBTLE DIFFS IN THE
NAM/GFS LOW LVL WIND FIELDS. POTNL FOR LAKE PCPN TO BE N OF NRN
ONEIDA...SO JUST CARRIED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
CONCERNING WINDS...MDLS SHOW STRONG FLOW ABV THE STABLE BL WED
NGT...BUT TEHRE APPEARS TO POTNL FOR 30-40 MPH FLOW ACRS THE HIER
TERRAIN GNRLY ABV 1500 FT. BETTER CHC FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ALL
AREAS/ELEVATIONS ON THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WELL ANTICIPATED COLD AND AND UNSETTLED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LAKES...WILL LAST THROUGH THE WHOLE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN TROF OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING THAT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY.
WITH A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THROUGH 500 MB ASIDE
FROM EARLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MOST OF THE
LAKE SNOWS WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA TOWARD WATERTOWN FRIDAY.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
BUT THE THINKING STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY SIMILAR. THE DIFFERENCE
LIES WITH THE UPPER TROF AS THE EURO DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW DUE
NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY...WHILE KEEPING A BROAD DEEP TROF ACROSS
THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST. THE GFS DOES NOT CUT OFF THE LOW AND INSTEAD
SUGGESTS THE TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS. IN EITHER CASE WINDS WILL VEER MORE INTO THE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF
THE LAKE SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
FAR OUT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BUT WINDS MAY
VEER ENOUGH TO ALSO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...INCLUDING
THE SYRACUSE AREA. LAKE DELTA T'S AROUND 20 SUGGEST MODERATE
INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME SO THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE
CAREFULLY WATCHED FOR DECENT LAKE SNOWS.
HPC HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SEEM A BIT TOO COLD WITH BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS SHOWING 925S AROUND -5.5C WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY WITH 925S HOLDING
STEADY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SFC TROF MVG INTO WRN NY COULD TRIGGER SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE
NY TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG AS IT PASSES THRU. BUD THE
TROF...SOME LES PSBL BUT FLOW FAVORS THE BANDS TO BE NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...SO NO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS XPCTD. SO...VFR XPCTD
FOM ARND MIDDAY ON ALL SITES AS WEAK HIPRES BLDS IN. TO THE
SOUTH...AVP SHD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT AS ALL THE PCPN STAYS NORTH.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS THIS EVENING BECOMING SSW/SW AROUND
06Z THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AT
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED..VFR.
WED NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN
THUR....MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
THUR NGT...IFR SNOW LAKE BANDS. OTHERWISE MVFR.
FRI...MVFR/IFR KSYR- KRME LAKE BANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED...MONDAY EVENING
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW CONTINUES. THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH
OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE
MONTH OF MARCH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AVERAGE SNOWFALL FOR NOVEMBER IS 11.1
INCHES. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING
DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS
GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 2009 279 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 30TH SO FAR
2) 1946 276 DAYSFEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IN SYRACUSE IS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD SET-UP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DGM
