FXUS61 KOKX 290247
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY WILL DRAW A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
976MB LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...AND GRADIENT OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO
RELAX. GENERALLY WEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH...BUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LIKELY AT OUTLYING AREAS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
KFOK/KSWF/KDXR. LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 40 IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. AT THOSE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TEMPS MAY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST...BUT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES S OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES ON SUN. WSW
WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KT COASTS. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABV CLIMO. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE BY EVE AS FLOW
ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE IS DRAWN NEWD FROM THE SE CONUS.
H5 SHRTWV CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU CNTRL CANADA WILL SWEEP A CDFNT
THRU THE CWA ON MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SHRA. ATTM IT
APPEARS LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN IN THE WINDOW FOR RA. MILD AMS
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV CLIMO WITH CLDY SKIES.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MON NGT BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER LAKE STRATUS
WILL BUILD IN WITH THE COLD AIR OVERNIGHT. AMOUNT OF STRATUS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH LOWS ARE LIMITED. FOR NOW FCST IS 20S AND 30S
WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL. IF THE CLOUD SHIELD DOES NOT EXTEND INTO
THE CWA...COLDER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW TUE AFTN WITH LAKE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CHANCES ARE LIMITED ATTM AND SIG
PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT REACH CLIMO AS H85
WILL BE AROUND -7C. IF THE SHRA DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW...ENOUGH
EVAP COOLING COULD RESULT IN -SHSN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
12Z GFS HAS A MORE INLAND TRACK WITH THE LOW PASSING WEST OF NY
CITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A TRACK EAST OF NY CITY.
EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID TO
OCCUR WITH THIS EVENT. IF THIS LOW PASSES FURTHER EAST...THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TERMINALS AWAY
FROM THE KNYC AREA...FOR THE MOST PART...W WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO 4-8 KT.
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
W FLOW OF 5-10 KT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TURNING SW.
SW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...ESPECIALLY AT KNYC
TERMINALS...BY SUN EVENING.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUN NIGHT...VFR.
MON...SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBY LIKELY IN RAIN.
MON NIGHT-TUE...SUB VFR CIGS POSSIBLE N AND W OF NYC.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.
WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA LEVELS ON BOTH NY HARBOR AND WESTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WATERS...WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALES. THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED
BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KT CAN BE EXPECTED.
MRGNL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SUN AND SUN NGT ON WSW FLOW...THEN A
BETTER CHC FOR SCA CRITERIA BEHIND A CDFNT MON AND MON NGT.
LINGERING WNW FLOW MAY RESULT IN CONTINUING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
ERN OCEAN TUE INTO TUE NGT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED WITH
WINDS/SEAS BLW SCA LVLS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR GALE FORCE
GUSTS...WITH SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FT. AS THE LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH THE CWA ON MON
BRINGING LESS THAN 1/2 IN OF RNFL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MDT TO LOC HVY RNFL WED
NGT THRU THU.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
