FXUS63 KGLD 011152
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2009

SPLIT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...MID/UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM ALBERTA INTO MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. ARCTIC FRONT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER THE COLORADO ZONES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

SHORT-TERM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEPICTING PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS TODAY BUT COLDEST AIR WILL LAG FROPA BY SEVERAL
HOURS SO ANTICIPATE ONE MORE DAY OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AFTERNOON
TEMPS. ALL BETS ARE OFF FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK HOWEVER
AS ARCTIC AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. 

WEAK AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON THE 290-295K SURFACE
WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER WITH MIXING
RATIOS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 G/KG SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN FLURRY
MENTION BUT TWEAKED TO SCATTERED WORDING RATHER THAN ISOLATED. 

INITIAL SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR REACHES THE CWA AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY
WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -5C BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG
CAA REGIME IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH UPPER 20S LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS BY THURSDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR
-10C...MID TO UPPER 20S APPEAR LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SO
TWEAKED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. 

AIR MASS MODIFIES SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. DON'T NORMALLY
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO DAY 6 ON THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT BUT
EC/OPERATIONAL GFS ARE NEARLY LOCK-STEP IN FROPA/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES. AS A RESULT...LOWERED SUNDAY MAXES BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. GIVEN MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN...MOISTURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LACKING WITH THIS FROPA SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT. 

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
440 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2009

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS NOW TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE RUC...HAS SLOWED THE SHIFT
TO A NORTH WIND BY 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE BIGGEST SLOW DOWN FOR
KGLD. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC IS NOT TOO FAR OFF AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...
CHOSE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE NEXT SHIFT. EVEN THOUGH THE GUSTY NATURE
OF THE WINDS WILL STOP BY 00Z...SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES
IN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND SHOULD KEEP WINDS STEADY NEAR 15 KNOTS.
EVEN THOUGH VFR...KGLD MAY SEE THE CEILINGS COME DOWN TO JUST ABOVE
MVFR AFTER 06Z WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$