FXUS64 KBMX 292127
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS RAIN
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.
THE COLD FRONT...STILL BACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AR AND NOT MOVING
MUCH...WILL GET A KICK FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND
BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING STEADY BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE WEST...AND UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE NORTH BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH.
COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO BEHIND THE FRONT AND DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES...NOT MUCH WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY...PROMPTING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. GFS REMAINS
TOO FAST WITH EJECTING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF...AND ITS LOW TRACK ACROSS MS FOR THE
FINER FORECAST DETAILS. REGARDLESS...FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MEANS WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OUT
OF THE GULF...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT
INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK AND STRONG STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON THURSDAY LIKELY WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTH...AND WILL ONLY REACH 50 ON FRIDAY. MID 50S ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS AND FRI WILL BE IN
THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 30S IN THE SOUTH.
NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SATURDAY. NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY.
14
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN GIVING WAY TO LOWER CIGS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP THE VCSH
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR TCL...BHM AND EET...WITH PREDOMINANT LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR SETUP AT
ANB...HOWEVER...THE TIMING WILL BE A BIT SLOWER. FOR MGM AND
TOI...WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
PREDOMINANT LIGHT RAIN COMING AFTER THE 24 PERIOD ENDS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 49 57 32 59 46 / 70 70 10 0 70
ANNISTON 49 58 33 59 47 / 30 70 10 0 80
BIRMINGHAM 51 57 37 60 50 / 60 70 10 10 80
TUSCALOOSA 53 59 36 59 53 / 60 70 10 10 80
CALERA 51 59 37 60 51 / 40 70 10 10 80
AUBURN 49 62 37 61 50 / 10 60 10 10 90
MONTGOMERY 50 64 38 61 52 / 10 60 10 10 90
TROY 48 65 40 59 52 / 0 50 10 20 90
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
