FXUS65 KLKN 041242
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
442 AM PST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SILVER STATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL USHER
IN A COLDER AIR MASS THAT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TODAY WE WILL SEE BRIEF RIDGING
IN THE GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 700MB
TEMPS IN ELKO WILL FALL FROM AROUND -1C AT 00Z THIS EVENING...TO
-11C AT 12Z SATURDAY...AND -17C AT 00Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
TONIGHT AS THEY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. A LEE-SIDE WIND
EVENT IS NOT LIKELY AS THE FROUDE NUMBERS ARE A BIT LOW...BUT
GUSTS IN RUBY AND CLOVER VALLEYS TONIGHT COULD REACH 40 KTS AT
TIMES. 

A LOW DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...
BUT THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWERS... WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES BEING MORE LIKELY. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 DEGREES 
IN MOST AREAS. REA

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. POSITIVELY TILTED 
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO NORTHERN CA/NV TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD...BRINGING MORE COLD AIR AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH 
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE INCOMING 
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PASSING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
MONDAY...AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE 
LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL 
MISS THE CWA...MONDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER DAY 
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. VALLEY AREAS ON MONDAY SHOULD 
RECEIVE BETWEEN A TRACE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW...WITH MOUNTAINS 
RECEIVING 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. 

A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOW 
TEMPERATURES TAKING ANOTHER DIP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

A SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN 
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AT WHICH TIME THE FLOW ALOFT 
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEAR-ZONAL...AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE 
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IF VERIFIED...THE NEAR-ZONAL FLOW COULD 
PROVE TO BE MUCH WETTER FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. 
HOWEVER...WITH MODELS NOT BEING VERY CONSISTENT BEYOND THE DAY THREE 
TIME-FRAME LATELY...HELD POPS NEAR TO ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. &&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY IN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A
75KT NORTHWESTERLY JET MOVES OVER GREAT BASIN. AREAS OVER AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST GUSTS. 
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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