FXUS61 KGYX 300802
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWED PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
STRETCHED FROM THE MAINE/CANADIAN BORDER TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WAS FALLING AS RAIN...BUT A
FEW SITES SUCH AS WHITEFIELD AND BERLIN WERE REPORTING FROZEN
PRECIP...MOST LIKELY A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. THE FROZEN
PRECIP WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WILL
BECOME MORE SPOTTY DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE FRONT
AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE AN INCH OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR...BUT A RELATIVELY WARM START TO THE DAY SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT.
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. PASSING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING TO BE A
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 40 IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES WITH JUST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. APPEARS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE BUT
THE GENERAL TREND IS TO KEEP NEW ENGLAND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE OVER-RUNNING AT 850 AND 700
MB WILL ACCOUNT FOR MUCH OF THE QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SEEING AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAIN. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE A FACTOR AT THIS TIME AS STRONG WARMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE
FROPA ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER IN NORTHERN
ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT.
ELSEWHERE SHOULD JUST SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS.
SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
HEADS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK RIDGING HEADS INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOOKING FOR PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCLUDED LIGHT RAIN IN ALL SITES TODAY AS PRECIP
SHIELD MOVES EAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR OR EVEN VFR AS LOW LEVELS
NEVER GET COMPLETELY SATURATED. VFR EXPECTED BY 21Z WITH NW WINDS
AROUND 8-12KTS.
LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. VFR ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS INT HE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY...
BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE OUTER WATERS WILL SEE WAVES JUST
BELOW 5 FT.
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS WILL BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
HANES/SINSABAUGH
