FXUS63 KDLH 261134
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
534 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KHYR
WHERE THE LOWER CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 20-22Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WRN GRT LKS REGION SITUATED BTWN
EXITING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SE AND AN APPROACHING SFC RIDGE TO THE
W CENTERED OVER THE CEN DAKOTAS. THE RESULT HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FA WHICH HAS KEPT WINDS GUSTY OUT OF
THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LK SUP WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN NEARSHORE ZONES
FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MRNG. THE
AUTOMATED STATIONS AT KGNA/KCKC HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTS OF 30-40
KTS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM FCST FOCUS ON ONGOING LK EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ALONG
THE GOGEBIC RIDGE IN SE BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. KDLH AND
WAOW TV RADARS ARE PICKING UP ON LIGHT ECHOES /15-25 DBZ/
STREAMING S OVER LK SUP...MAKING LANDFALL IN NRN WIS. THE BEST
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FOUND ALONG THE STEEP TERRAIN FROM MASON TO
GURNEY. THE ILLUMINATED WEB CAM IN THE TOWN OF HURLEY HAS BEEN
SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE SN SHOWERS FOR THE PAST 1-2 HRS. NO
ACCUM HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SPOTTERS BUT SN IS VISIBLY ACCUMULATING
ON THE GASSY SURFACES IN HURLEY. THE ROADS ARE VISIBLY WET/SLUSHY.
DUE TO TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING...EXPECT THE WET
SURFACES TO FREEZE TO CREATE SLICK ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE LES AREA THROUGH NOON HOUR...THEN DECREASED
POPS FOR AFTRN. THE RUC13/NAM12 IN AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS
CONTINUE TO DROP...INCREASING DELTA-T VALUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...KIWD
SOUNDING/RH FIELDS DEPICT DRIER AIR QUICKLY WORKS E OVER REGION
AFT 15Z...AND WINDS DECREASE IN STRENGTH LIMITING ENHANCEMENT.
LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF ANOTHER INCH...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS IN ERN WIS ZONES THIS
MORNING. LESSOR AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE SHORE OF LK
SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR 30S. LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING CABLE TO IRONWOOD AND
MERCER.
NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD E ACROSS MN TODAY...CENTERING OVER
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. DECREASED LOWS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE...BUT STILL RUNNING WARMER THAN MET SUGGESTS. DAY SHIFT
MAY NEED TO CONTINUE COOLING TREND FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...X-SECTIONS/BUFKIT SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADS OVER
NCEN/NE MN GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY CLOUD COVER COULD
INFLUENCE MIN TEMPS BY 5-10 DEGREES.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS DISAGREE ON ON THE DEPTH OF
THIS TROF AND ITS SFC REFLECTION...ALONG WITH PCPN IMPACT. WILL
FOLLOW THE 00Z/26 ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL SOLUTIONS AND BROUGHT A SMALL POP
TO THE FAR NW PART OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROF WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE
FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...RESULTS IN LOW POPS.
A LONG WAVE TROF WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
VERY LIGHT SNOW TO THE FA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NW WI WHERE CAA WILL INTERACT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT. LES IS POSSIBLE IN NW WI WITH NW WIND/CAA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA ON MONDAY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS
AVIATION...UPDATE FOR 06Z TAFS
PRECIP JUST ABOUT DONE. VSBYS WILL STAY VFR. CIGS ARE GENERALLY
MVFR...BUT WITH BREAKS OPENING UP UPSTREAM. CIGS SHUD GRADUALLY
BECMG VFR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS AS HIGH PRESS AND DRIER AIR
PUSH INTO THE REGION. VFR THEN EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PD.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 36 23 39 24 / 10 10 0 0
INL 32 17 36 23 / 10 0 10 0
BRD 35 23 40 25 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 36 20 39 21 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 35 24 39 25 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
141-146>148.
&&
$$
GRANING/GSF/GSF
