FXUS63 KABR 221114 CCA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
511 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 
WITH THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

RADAR ECHOS AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALMOST ALL REMAINING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND MVFR CIGS COVER THE
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KATY WHERE 4SM VSBY IN BR REMAINS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY INDUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
TUESDAY. THEREFORE KEPT THE VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. I LEFT
MENTION OF FZDL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BUT REMOVED FZDL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WAA AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING GETS RAMPED UP.

BASED ON INCREASING CONFIDENCE...THE WATCH HAS BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE
UPCOMING WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA PUT OUR CWA IN OUR VERY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS CREATING
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW. THE MODEL QPF SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SNOW
FALLING BY THE TIME THE STORM ENDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN FACT SOME OF
THE MODELS SHOW WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST FILLS.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY
HAVE TO EXTEND THEM INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE COLD
ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTH WINDS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY
AND COLD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR...OCNL IFR...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
TODAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT AFTER 00Z...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY IFR WITH OCNL MVFR WITH SOME LIGHT FOG OF 3
TO 5SM DEVELOPING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM 
     CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-
     HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-
     ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR 
     BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...KRAMLICH
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN