FXUS63 KGID 301108
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
508 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS AND A LIGHT WEST WIND. THE WEST
WIND WILL BACK SOME JUST AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...BEEN ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH SATELLITE AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SW US/MEX
BORDER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. LITTLE HAS CHANGED LOOKING AT THE SFC
PATTERN...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LINGERING AS THE CWA SITS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE TX/OK/CO/NM
BORDERS.

PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.   

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED FOR TODAY...BUT WILL SEE A REBOUND 
IN TEMPERATURES.  UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AND 
DRY...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH.  
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN 
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE 
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT 
SHOWING WARMING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHING UP NEAR 8 TO 
10C BY 00Z TONIGHT.  WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WARMER AIR WORKING 
ITS WAY IN AND THE WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING A DOWNSLOPING 
COMPONENT...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH WELL 
INTO THE 50S...WITH WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING NEAR THE 
60 DEGREE MARK. 

THINGS START TO TURN A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS WE GET INTO 
TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE/LATE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.  FOR 
TUESDAY...MAIN STORY WILL LIE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH 
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING TO SHIFT EAST AND A STOUT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE REMAIN SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING QUITE
A BIT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. FORECAST IS A BLEND
BUT IS TRENDED TOWARDS THE FASTER SIDE...WHICH WOULD PUT THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA AT MIDDAY AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED. THOUGH THERE IS GOOD FORCING WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THE FRONT...JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR PRESENT TO GET ANY PRECIP.
AS WE GET INTO WED/THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
NORTHERN TROUGH...CREATING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS IN WHICH THE CENTRAL AND EAST REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST.

SO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE CWA IS ENJOY THE NICE TEMPERATURES 
NOW...BECAUSE THEY ARE GOING AWAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH
BEHIND THIS FRONT/UL TROUGH. THINK THAT TUESDAY WONT BE TOO BAD
OF A DAY EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH...AS THE COLDER
AIR DOESNT REALLY PUSH IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 50 IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SE.
LOOKING AT THE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...THEY DROP FROM APPROX +10C DOWN TO -10 TO -15C. FORECAST
IS CALLING FOR HIGH TEMPS TO END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ON WED AND
FRI...WITH THE COLDEST DAY ON THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
30S. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH LEFT
FORECAST DRY...SOME OF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTING SOME
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
SOUTH. SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT BETTER MOISTURE...AND THE
COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SPILL IN BRINGS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP. BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAIN DRIER...AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS KEEP HANGING ON
WITH THIS BEFORE I THROW POPS IN...BUT IS SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT
CAN ALSO PONDER.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODEL SOLUTION 
ARE STILL A BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL PATTERN.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$