FXUS63 KILX 151953
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
153 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AS WEAK WAVE TO
BRING CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE DATA SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AIRMASS IS COOL AND DRY AND SO WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO AREA TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. ALL THREE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON HIGH PRESSURE MOVEMENT. 

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST SOME...AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
IN THE PLAINS. 

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 

NEW EUR AND GFS MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN PROGGED DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EUR MODEL SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE MODEL
OF CHOICE. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A SOMEWHAT 
LIMITED PCPN MAKER. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORY ONLY. 

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROOUGHING IN PLACE...REST OF THE EXTENDED 
TIMEFRAME SHOULD REMAIN COOL. THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
SHOWERY PCPN THAT WILL NEED TO BE ADDED LATER.

GOETSCH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1120 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24HRS AT ALL TAF SITES. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$