FXUS63 KABR 221712 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1112 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY...CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT EAST WINDS...STEADY TEMPS IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S AND AREAS OF FOG ARE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE HAVE BEEN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEY WILL BE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED FLURRY
OR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO THAT CONTINUES TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

MULTI-MEDIA WEATHER BRIEFING INFORMATION WILL BE UPDATED AND
AVAILABLE AGAIN ON THE WEBSITE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR UNDER THE TOP
NEWS OF THE DAY SECTION. UPDATED WORDS/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

WINTER STORM WARNING SCENARIO FOR MID TO LATE THIS WEEK IS STILL
ON TRACK. LATEST DEVELOPMENTS INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASICALLY ALONG US HIGHWAY 281 AND POINTS EAST.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 
WITH THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

RADAR ECHOS AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALMOST ALL REMAINING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND MVFR CIGS COVER THE
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KATY WHERE 4SM VSBY IN BR REMAINS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY INDUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
TUESDAY. THEREFORE KEPT THE VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. I LEFT
MENTION OF FZDL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BUT REMOVED FZDL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WAA AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING GETS RAMPED UP.

BASED ON INCREASING CONFIDENCE...THE WATCH HAS BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE
UPCOMING WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA PUT OUR CWA IN OUR VERY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS CREATING
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW. THE MODEL QPF SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SNOW
FALLING BY THE TIME THE STORM ENDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN FACT SOME OF
THE MODELS SHOW WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST FILLS.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY
HAVE TO EXTEND THEM INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE COLD
ACROSS THE CWA WITH NORTH WINDS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY
AND COLD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS COULD SEE SNOW DEVELOPING
BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE
SNOW DEVELOPING AT OR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM 
     CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-
     HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-
     ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR 
     BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...KRAMLICH
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN