FXUS63 KLBF 052114
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
314 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT EASTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUDS
INCREASING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES JUMPED JUST AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. H5 TROUGH OVER IDAHO TO AFFECT FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST WAVE BRINGS A CLOSED 700MB CLOSED LOW
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FAIRLY FAST
MOVER. HAVE AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF ACCUMULATION AT 15:1 RATIO.
WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH OF A REBOUND ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. RELATIVELY QUIET COLD MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE TEENS. MONDAY NIGHT COLORADO
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO 4
CORNERS ON THE NOSE OF 140 KT JET. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WAA PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW. SNOW SOME
MODERATE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SEEN FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTH
BEFORE THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TWO TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ON TUESDAY. IF THE
STORM TRACK MOVES NORTH OR SOUTH THIS COULD CHANGE. WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT A WATCH ON SUNDAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES
DRY BUT COLD WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN.  

 

&&

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN CEILINGS AND 
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEYOND 06/12Z 
INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES OR LOWER CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS THAT CREATES ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO 
SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY. TERMINALS 
KLBF AND KVTN WILL BE IMPACTED ALTHOUGH KLBF WILL BE IN THE DEEPER 
MOISTURE WITH BROADER LIFT FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW AS H85 TEMPERATURES 
TAKE THE PLUNGE FOR THE DAY. INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES SHOULD BE 
ANTICIPATED AS CEILINGS DROP WITH LOWER IFR RULES POSSIBLE THAT WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...KECK