FXUS61 KGYX 260803
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LIGHT OVER-RUNNING PRECIP AHEAD OF OCCLUSION APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MAKE TRAVEL A LITTLE SLICK LATER TODAY AS DEPTH OF
WARM AIR INCREASES OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WITH JUST OCCASIONAL SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
INCLUDING THE COAST. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ADJUST TIMING AND
EXTENT OF ADVISORIES AS THE EVENT EVOLVES LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM BUT LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BASED ON MODEL QPF...BUT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTH AND EAST FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS. ALONG THE COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON SO SEE
LITTLE IMPACT AT THIS POINT FOR THE SECOND PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RN...F AND SOME GUSTY SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO CANADA WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL SYSTEM OCCLUDING AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT.
THIS FNT CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. CD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT
SHUTTING OFF STEADY PRCP WITH SHSN TO FOLLOW IT...MAINLY OVER MORE
NRN AND MT AREAS. A WEAK SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NE. THIS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SN WITH SOME
LGT ACCUMULATION PSBL.
A STRONG ARCTIC CD FNT MOVES THRU LATE MONDAY NGT WITH SHSN PSBL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FNT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NGT WITH SOME SHSN STILL PSBL...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE MT
REGIONS. CD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY NGT THRU WEDNESDAY NGT
WITH FAIR BUT CD WX. LOW PRES MOVES NE OFF THE SE COAST THURSDAY
THRU FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THE FCST AREA COULD SEE PRCP,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SN, FROM THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
SHOW IT JUST TO FAR TO THE SE TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WX.
HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT
LEAST SOME LGT PRCP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SN, AROUND THE REGION
THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR TO LIFR IN RN AND F
SUNDAY WITH RAIN...WARM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS OVER SN COVER. WEAK
LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WHICH COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR IN SN TO THE AREA. ARCTIC CD FNT
MOVES THRU LATE MONDAY NGT BRINGING SHSN AND PSBL MVFR OR MAYBE
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THIS FNT FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NGT ALONG WITH MT SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA'S FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WILL PUT UP A GALE WATCH
FOR SUNDAY. STRONG SE FLOW AHEAD OF LOW AND TRAILING OCCLUDED
FRONT HAS LOW LVL JET OF 35-40 KTS DOWN TO 1000 FT WHICH SHOULD
MIX DOWN AS FREQUENT GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY ARRIVE OVER THE SRN MOST WATERS LATE TNGT THEN SPREAD TO THE
NE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WON'T COMPLICATE HEADLINES
AND JUST KEEP AS ONE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF FNT. MOS WIND FCST FROM GFS AND NAM ALSO
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS AS DOES OFFSHORE WATERS DISCUSSION.
ANOTHER GALE EVENT LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONT INTO
TUESDAY NGT IN VERY COLD NW FLOW BEHIND ARCTIC FNT WITH TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT SETTING UP.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ005-
007>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
